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Stabroek News

Staying the course
published: Thursday | March 6, 2008


LONDON, England:

Practically buried under the avalanche of American election coverage was Sunday's victory by Dmitry Medvedev in the Russian presidential election. This may well have been a fair reflection of the relative level of drama in Russia's poll.

Unlike the hotly contested US Democratic nomination, the outcome of the Russian election was never in doubt. The only question was whether Russians would bother turning out to vote for what was a foregone conclusion.

For as commentators drily noted, Mr Medvedev got the one vote which mattered last year: outgoing president Vladimir Putin's endorsement. It is not that Russia is a dictatorship. Mr Putin remains a very popular president, and would win most any election. Nonetheless, for good measure, he has made life difficult for the opposition, reducing electoral politics to a sideshow. Days before the vote, Mr Putin felt compelled to make a speech urging Russians to vote, for fear that they might not even bother.

Mr Medvedev has already said that he will make Mr Putin his prime minister. On the face of it, therefore, little has changed in Russia. Mr Putin looks set to remain the power behind the throne.

Questions

Some analysts question whether this comity will last. While some say Mr Medvedev could conceivably resign, enabling Mr Putin to return to office without violating the constitutional two-term limit, others indicate that power is now in the new president's hands. There isn't a recent precedent for this kind of "power-sharing." Thus, the reputed Russian fondness for the strong leader may drive Mr Medvedev to concentrate power in his office, just as his predecessor did.

As a relative liberal, therefore, the new Russian president may put his own stamp on his presidency. But for the time being, the world's biggest country appears to be staying on the course Mr Putin set for it.

Staying the course appears to be precisely what Hillary Clinton is planning to do after her victories in this week's US presidential primaries and caucuses. For her Democratic Party, Tuesday's results were close to a nightmare scenario: just enough of a victory to keep her in the race, but not enough to give her the sort of momentum that will enable her to break out of a tight, two-person pack.

Under pressure

Voters in Texas and Ohio threw Mrs Clinton a lifeline. So strong is Barack Obama's momentum, and his lead in delegates, that losses there would have put her under intense pressure to quit. Her stay of execution increases the likelihood that the campaign for the Democratic nomination will be nasty, bruising and long.

The worry for the Democratic establishment - which has been ready to bail out Mrs Clinton - is that John McCain formally secured the Republican nomination on Tuesday night. While Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton continue slugging it out, Mr McCain will have plenty of time to make peace with his party. While the two Democrats suck yet more money from their donors, the Republicans will start building the war chest for the autumn campaign. In consequence, a presidential election that appeared to be the Democrats' to lose may come back into the Republican grasp.

Some liberal commentators have been urging Mrs Clinton to go quietly into the night for the party's sake. They say the math is against her, and that Mr Obama's delegate-lead cannot be whittled down unless she resorts to divisive tactics like lobbying to reverse the party's decision not to allow delegates from Florida.

Look to her to do just that. I doubt the Clintons will go quietly into any night. But a grim November night is starting to loom for their party.


John Rapley is president of Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CaPRI), an independent think tank affiliated to the UWI, Mona.
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