Orville Taylor, Contributor

These elections are so close they could end up in a stalemate. The notion of any mate at all is repugnant to the average Jamaican, especially since a split in the middle often causes trouble.

Try as you may it would take a visionless hypocrite or a minister of information like the Iraq clown during the American invasion, to predict a landslide for any party. At best it will be a mudslide because that is the colour that one gets when green and orange are mixed. Right now, every single vote counts, except in the garrisons and apart from those, the only seats that are safe are in cars, and even those are no safe because some members of the police are stealing them.

Any little incident can shift the balance of these elections. Therefore, the standard of scrutiny, vigilance and transparency has to be the highest it has ever been in our modern electoral history. As I write a bit of trepidation grips me and cold sweat climbs down my spine. Flashbacks of the horrific 1980 pre-election period haunt me and those innocent persons killed for nothing more than merely saying 'showa' or 'socialis' are just as vivid.

Secondary information

For more than half of the population this is secondary information because they were born after January 1981. That is why we must guide the dangerous and neglected youth, including the arrogant and brusque 'know it all' who (mis)represents his party's youth arm. Never must the carnage of 1980 return to this God-blessed country.

There is a growing body count and I will not do the slain the disservice of playing the numbers game as to whether more Peoples' National Party (PNP) or Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) supporters died on the politica None should have!

Praise Jah that there is some nominal adherence to the political code of conduct and that bans have been placed on campaigning in several constituencies. Still, there is too much incivility and boorishness. Media workers were pelted for being exactly where the JLP hierarchy placed them during their meeting. A candidate just lost his mind and called his opponent 'duppy' and other names. Weeks earlier, the farmer hogged the stage and called the JLP 'bitches'. In response, his 'warship' seemed to turn into a suicide bomber and issued a 'Fatwa' against him.

Right now, the parties are desperate because the debates did not result in a decisive victory for either. The next step is, therefore, to dig for any little evidence to disqualify opponents. What a comedy it has become! First, the beauty turned orang she had not given up her 'green' card. Worse, despite her degrees, she can't even mark an X.

Then, her older 'facesake' and her brother are reported to be 'farrinaz'. With rumours that 'she out' more than 'she een', it is clear that the PNP doesn't simply want to halt the foolishness. Rather, it just wants to stop the Fakhouries.

Nevertheless, the former 'citizen' of the JLP and PNP, Norman Horne admitted that he had dual citizenship prior to his nomination. Bruce Golding must be flipping over because the plot has flopped, since the PNP now has Verna Parchment and Dabdoub! This balances neatly with Bruce and Karl Samuda, who are 'turn back' Labourites.

Nevertheless, while we fool around with paradise, there is a Jamaican proverb that goes, "Man a plan, God a wipe out." Another, "Chicken merry, hawk deh near," is just as instructive and "young bird don't know storm."

Like our ancestors, Hurricane Dean has left the coast of Africa and has made its way to the Caribbean, ready to wreak havoc on all the economic and social data just debated over a week ago.

However, if its name is any indication of its direction, despite the assurances of a certain political party, it had better change course. Nevertheless, with such a name, it is expected to stutter, stammer and shudder before making landfall.

A hurricane would not only lead to a postponement of the election, but more important, it would really test the mettle of the would-be government. None of the evasive responses so evident in the debate would suffice if the dreaded 'Dean' hits later or tomorrow.

God-fearing country

Let us pray that God, Allah and Jah Jah spare us. After all, we are a god-fearing country and her 'Anointedness' has a seer who has Jehovah's cell number, and Deacon Golding has a reverend who blesses his every move and speaks to the "Al Mighty". Hopefully, he will have greater success than in 2004 when he was personally told by the Lord that 'Ivan's' visa would be cancelled.

Still, while all must be concerned and hunkered down, history has not favoured the ruling party when a hurricane, storm or flood touches us before a general election.

In 1954, Tropical Storm Hazel battered the country, hitting eastern parishes badly. Coincidentally, a few months later, the incumbent JLP lost in the January 1955 election. Hurricane Allen gave us a glancing blow around this time in 1980 it produced islandwide damage and flooding, it was again the eastern parishes that felt the brunt of its fury. Needless to say, two months later it washed out the PNP and soaked Parliament with green.

Wha Wha Wild Gilbert in September 1988 did more damage to 'Seaganomics' than any other external force. By February 1989, a remodelled Michael Manley 2.0 led the PNP back in for the longest time ever.

Yet, while the unthinkable of Dean's arrival might correlate with green shoots after the storm, is there anyone who would be so unpatriotic and short-sighted to wish that he comes?

Dr. Orville Taylor is senior lecturer in the Department of Sociology, Psychology, and Social Work at the University of the West Indies, Mona