John Rapley - FOREIGN FOCUS LAST WEEK'S jobs report brought bad news for President George W. Bush. Amid signs of a slowing economy, the Department of Labor's monthly Employment Report showed that the US created only a few thousand new jobs last month.
A slowing economy in an election year is a bad mix for an incumbent. For months, polls have shown that the Democratic challenger, John Kerry, is rated more highly by Americans on his economic competence.
LIKELY TO LOSE
In an ordinary election year, he might be opening a wide lead by this point. The historical record shows that a president who is rated this poorly so soon before the election is likely to lose.
But this is no ordinary year: despite the received wisdom, the race remains neck and neck. This is because there is a new and unpredictable factor to be considered in weighing the race for the presidency. This is America's war on terror.
CLEAR ADVANTAGE
The one issue on which George W. Bush has consistently enjoyed a clear advantage over his Democratic opponent has been his performance as a commander-in-chief. With a decorated Vietnam veteran for a candidate, the Democratic Party has been trying to chip away at this advantage, though as yet it has made few dents in the president's standing. Not surprisingly, the administration has done what it can to steer attention to the war on terror. It is the primary issue in the president's election campaign.
Meanwhile, the government has managed to focus minds on terrorism with a recent series of alerts. There has been some controversy surrounding the most recent warnings. On the one hand, there does appear to have been genuine intelligence suggesting that a terrorist attack on the US was imminent.
On the other, some of the information on which the alerts were based turned out to be years old. This prompted questions as to why the government chose this moment to raise the alarm.
NOT COINCIDENTAL
The cynical view, voiced most loudly by a former contestant for the Democratic presidential nomination, Howard Dean, is that the timing was not coincidental.
With the Democratic convention having just wrapped up, the Republicans wanted to cut short any post-convention 'bounce' being enjoyed by John Kerry.
A kinder interpretation is that the government does not want to repeat the mistakes of the pre-9/11 period, when a failure to communicate the risks of a possible attack left the public in the dark about the dangers.
Now, the White House warns Americans of every possible risk. And there does appear to be evidence that the risk right now is higher than usual.
Given the number of al Qaeda 'sleeper cells' believed to be active in the US, and the determination of al Qaeda to launch more attacks on US soil, another major incident is more or less inevitable, sooner or later. And as the recent Spanish experience revealed, there can be important strategic gains to be had from disrupting an election campaign.
However, it is not clear what advantage al Qaeda would have in tipping the American election one way or the other. Were an incident to occur between now and November, it would almost certainly boost George W. Bush in the polls.
RALLY EFFECT
There is a well-documented 'rally effect' in the US each time the country is under attack. Any hopes that a terrorist attack would cast a negative light on the Bush administration's conduct of the war are misplaced.
However, even without an attack, al Qaeda appears to be achieving one of its strategic objectives. This is to hurt Americans in their pocketbooks. There are signs that mounting fears of terrorism are depressing stock markets, holding back employment and investment, and raising oil prices.
For President Bush, this poses an uncomfortable dilemma. The more his administration focuses on terrorism with its security alerts, the more it will hinder the economy.
STRONG CARD
In other words, the more the White House plays its strong card, the more it weakens the rest of its hand. Meanwhile, America waits on tenterhooks, ever more anxious that a terrorist attack is about to occur.
The anxiety looks likely to build until at least the election - or an attack, whichever comes first. Wherever he is, Osama bin Laden must be rubbing his hands gleefully, satisfied that he has 'them' right where he wants them.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government UWI, Mona.
