Hopefully, the observation is not premature. But among the most important developments, so far, from the tax package announced last week by Finance Minister Audley Shaw, is the relative calm with which it was greeted, especially, the sharp hike in the tax on petrol.

In that regard, congratulations are, perhaps, in order to the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) for not displaying the hubris which might otherwise have recreated the circumstance of a decade ago, when it formed the Government and had to retreat from a petrol tax. Then, there were violent protests.

Indeed, this orchestration, over the past three decades, of action by governments that increased gasolene prices into political flashpoints has proved both draining and expensive. And we believe it has contributed in no small measure to Jamaica's failure to fashion a credible energy policy. It explains in part too, why the consumption of oil - which accounts for 90 per cent of Jamaica's energy source and all of which is imported - has not declined, even during periods of rocketing prices.

Partisan considerations aside, we know that there are genuine concerns over the potential impact of this $8.75 increase in the ad valorem tax - which more than doubles the rate - that Mr Shaw has placed on a litre of gasolene. This, plus the move from two to five per cent in the rate of the special levy on imported finished petroleum products, are expected to raise $13.3 billion, or 55 per cent of the $24.1 billion tax package the minister unveiled on Friday. Mr Shaw, of course, plans to give back around $6 billion during the fiscal year by raising the threshold at which Jamaicans begin to pay income tax, which means that his net tax take is around $18 billion.

The real issue

The real issue to us, though, is whether Mr Shaw had a choice. The answer, we think, is little to none. In Jamaica's bad economic circumstance - exacerbated by the global crisis - a big tax package was inevitable. And, with a public-sector deficit of nearly seven per cent of GDP and a failure to make even deep slashes in the size of government, the greater likelihood is that the tax requirement is understated. In other words, it will be difficult for Mr Shaw to contain spending to the approximately $557 billion he now projects, unless the Government has great success in dragging interest rates down further than expected.

But even assuming that the minister's spending forecast is credible, the issue that confronts opponents of the tax on petrol is to demonstrate - in the absence of a radical reduction in the size of the Government - from where that requisite level of additional income could immediately come. For instance, by the administration's estimates, it would require a near doubling of the increase expected from widening the net of the general-consumption tax to offset the projected higher earnings from petrol.

We, or course, do not believe that the Government has gone far enough with a public-sector liposuction. There remains much bloating, to which Prime Minister Golding and Mr Shaw need to bring their scalpels. Moreover, taxpayers' resources must be managed with greater efficiency and concerted action taken to reduce corruption.

But the fact is, the tougher the decisions that are taken now, the quicker Jamaica is likely to emerge from its fiscal crisis.

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