His presidency is just a few weeks old, and already the warm glow that enveloped Barack Obama seems to have been blown away by Washington's cold winds.

His intention to change the way Washington does business got torn to shreds by the appointment of some Cabinet members with ethical lapses that seemed decidedly old-style. His determination to build bridges across the parties fell into a deep divide when it came time to produce a stimulus package. And his much-awaited rescue plan for the financial system, announced by his treasury secretary on Tuesday, sent the markets into free fall.

Critics have been queuing up. On the editorial pages, even some of his friends have grown lukewarm. So has Barack Obama's day in the sun turned into the shortest political honeymoon in memory?

Some positives

Well, things might not be so bad. My guess is that the person least perturbed by the quick resumption of panic and anger is Obama himself; not because he will have retreated into a 'don't-worry-be-happy' shell of denial, but because, from election night, he has always signalled that the start of his ride was going to be a bumpy one.

Second, if support for his stimulus package is tepid, his own approval ratings remain sky-high. His principal mistake in that respect appeared to be to let House Democrats set too much of the stimulus agenda. Americans wanted more direction from Obama himself.

On the bailout, my guess is that Wall Street optimists had been hoping for some kind of magic wand to whisk away their woes, restore their profits, and take toxic assets off their balance sheets. Oh, and turn them all into handsome charming princes. But there's about as much chance of that happening as of the Italians playing exciting football.

The problems confronted by the Obama administration are enormously complex. The bailout package could have received a better launch. But as the details are fleshed out, it may take shape as the most reasonable solution. And while the stimulus package is not perfect, anything which gets money into the hands of US consumers will be better than something which does not.

The ride will continue to be bumpy, however. Having a rough start is not a problem. The literature on the political business cycle in the US suggests that the president does well to do unpopular things early in his presidency, in the hopes they begin to pay dividends at the next elections.

My sense is that things will really start to get rough for Obama after the 2010 mid-term elections. There's a good chance that a real turnaround will not have yet begun, while national debt will soar. If his party suffers setbacks next year, the period which follows may prove particularly difficult.

In the meantime, though, when one compares Obama's with that of his immediate predecessors, his start hasn't been all that bad - at least, not yet. Nonetheless, it is a nail-biting time. If the world economy is being besieged by the barbarians of bad credit and mistrust, Washington may represent the last bastion from which a rearguard will be mounted.

Eyes on the US

If the US stumbles its way into a Depression, the rest of us will go down. If it manages to restore confidence, the world economy still faces a difficult couple of years. But it will not collapse, and can then start groping towards recovery.

So, all eyes are on the White House, and on the US Treasury. Secretary Tim Geithner's debut did not inspire confidence.

But everyone's faith in Barack Obama may buy him a bit more time. Let's hope he uses it well.

John Rapley is president of the Caribbean Research Institute (CaPRI), an independent research think tank affiliated to the University of the West Indies, Mona. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.