It was former Prime Minister P.J. Patterson who said that Portia Simpson Miller was not just the best hope for the People's National Party (PNP), she was their only hope! With the public tired of the PNP after 18 years in power with little economic growth, and with scandal after scandal, it should have been a breeze for the JLP to sweep to power by a landslide. Yet, the PNP almost won the 2007 general election; they lost by a few seats, a few hundred votes. That showed the power of something which has come to be called 'The Portia Factor'.
The analysts are in uncommon agreement that had Peter Phillips or anyone else won the 2006 PNP leadership contest, and led the PNP against Bruce Golding on the hustings, the PNP would have suffered a humiliating defeat. This is because, for some reason, large numbers of poor, black Jamaicans - who are in the vast majority in Jamaica - believe strongly that Portia loves them, and in power will achieve the best for them.
Have you ever wondered who would have won the 2006 PNP leadership race if Omar Davies had not split the delegate vote by making it a three-way contest? Omar's campaign manager was D.K. Duncan, Portia's campaign manager in her earlier contest with P.J. Patterson for the top job. D.K. now supports Portia against Peter. I believe that it was Omar's campaign that won the PNP presidency for Portia, since many votes that might have gone to Peter went to Omar.
Crisis
There was almost a crisis in the PNP in 2006 when Portia won the PNP leadership race, for although she commanded the support of more PNP delegates than anyone else (because, it was said, so many of the PNP delegates were poor and unemployed), she did not command the support of the majority of PNP members of parliament; in fact, I believe she had the support of only a paltry two or three.
According to the Jamaican Constitution, the governor general appoints as prime minister the person who commands the support of the largest number of members of the House. It was P.J. Patterson who resolved the crisis by invoking party discipline to compel PNP MPs not to revolt and pull a coup by forcing a vote in the House, which would indicate to the governor general that Peter Phillips commanded the support of more MPs than Portia. It was an unstable and fragile arrangement.
The allegation from one side is that Portia was abysmal as prime minister, and from the other side is that the Peter Phillips camp withheld support from Portia while she was prime minister to make her look bad. Both are probably true, indicating a divided PNP. The question is whether, after this present leadership challenge, things will be any different.
Rock and a hard place
The PNP is between a rock and a hard place. It is difficult to see any short-term benefits that will accrue from this leadership challenge. Their present leader - Portia Simpson Miller - enjoys tremendous electoral popularity; remember, she is the PNP's "only hope". If Portia wins, the PNP has a chance to beat Bruce Golding if a general election is called, but no programmatic future. If Peter wins, the party may be able to recoup something in terms of a policy direction, but will have little chance to beat the Jamaica Labour Party any time soon in a general election.
Leadership race
After the previous leadership race, profound divisions remained within the PNP. There is no reason to believe that there will be any less 'cass-cass' after this one. Whoever wins, whether in a close race or decisively, one side of the party will be in the political wilderness. If Portia wins, the intellectual heart of the party will be alienated. If Peter wins, the grass-roots base of the party will have been eroded.
What is needed within the PNP is a microcosm of what Jamaica needs: a way for Jamaicans of all races and colours, of all educational backgrounds, whether poor or rich, whether 'well-spoken' or not, to find common cause, and to create a Jamaica that operates in the interest of all, but especially of the most marginalised. Ultimately, that is the hope behind 'the Portia Factor'.
Sub-tribes
What we don't need is for the victor in the battle of the sub-tribes to result in renewed tribal warfare between political camps for political and economic spoils, where the poor are the major losers.
Jamaica needs a credible opposition. The PNP was a corrupt government with a strong anti-environmental thrust. They succeeded in creating political garrisons but could not create an education system which taught poor black Jamaican children how to read. It is in the interest of all Jamaicans to have a new and different PNP. For, as the song says, "While we fight one another/for the power and the glory/Jah kingdom go to waste".
Peter Espeut is a sociologist and a Roman Catholic deacon.
