All's well, they say, that ends well. Hopefully, Zimbabwe now has a chance at a good ending.
But as the other cliché goes, there are many a slip between the cup and the lip.
To that end, the world will have to keep a watchful eye on Robert Mugabe, while being careful to avoid or support the kind of precipitous action that would undermine the power-sharing agreement signed on Monday between Mugabe and his political opponents. For, this pact, while on the face of it may seem unwieldy and cumbersome must serve to pull Zimbabwe back from the brink of complete ruin and falling into the category of another of Africa's failed states.
Under the agreement, Mugabe, who has clung to power despite the disputed presidential election in March, will retain most of the constitutional executive authority. But, he will have to share power with his rival, Morgan Tsvangirai, whose Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) won most seats in the March parliamentary elections, and Arthur Mutambara, who leads an MDC splinter group.
Two vice-presidents
Tsvangirai will be prime minister and will have Mutambara as one of his deputies and another from his own faction of the MDC. Mugabe will have two vice-presidents from his Zanu-PF party.
Mugabe will chair the Cabinet, but with Tsvangirai as the deputy. However, Tsvangirai will have responsibility for overseeing the development of policies by the Cabinet as well as head the council of ministers, made up primarily of Cabinet members, who will assess the implementation of policies.
In that regard, the agreement provides a complex system of checks and balance on both men that will demand genuine commitment from this government to work. Yet, even before it gets to that stage, this deal could unravel if, having been cajoled and strong-armed into this agreement, the leaders now fail to compromise on the formation of a government.
The accord is straightforward about the size of the Cabinet: 31 members, 15 from Zanu-PF, 13 from Tsvangirai's faction of the MDC and three from Mutambara's. The potential sticking point, however, is whose party gets which ministry.
Mugabe's opponents
For instance, Tsvangirai is known to want the police, accused of intimidation of Mugabe's opponents, under his control. The MDC - as well as its supporters in the West which have imposed sanctions in Zimbabwe - will likely want the key economic ministries on the assumption that it is necessary to unlock foreign economic support and private investment. And it will be good politics for the MDC if its ministers are seen to be the ones lifting Zimbabweans from the distress of unfathomable inflation and unemployment.
Assuming that they form the government in short order, Mugabe and Tsvangirai have other difficult matters to work through; not least of these is the plan to have a new constitution ready for a referendum in 18 months. With the grab of white-owned farms declared irreversible, there is the question of whether, as suggested in the agreement, Britain, the former colonial power, will now compensate the farmers for their lost land.
At the bottom line, this agreement, ultimately, is about returning Zimbabwe on a path to democracy. Should it gain traction, Mugabe, in his waning years, may yet salvage some of the reputation he deservedly earned as a freedom fighter, but badly squandered in the role of despot.
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