Avia Collinder, Gleaner Writer

Sylvia McGill, director of the National Meteorological Service. - File

Usually, they remain in the background. But, increasingly, at the first word of an impending storm or hurricane, Jamaicans tend to latch on to every word of the experts at the National Meteorological Service.

That was not always the case, but the frequency of storms and their deadly impact have brought about a shift.

Not listening to their bulletins could mean the difference between life and death - for the fisherman who needs to know how high the waves will climb and how enraged the seas will get; the adventurous driver or biker whose thrills are often found on treacherous cliffs prone to landslides; the motorist who braves a ford to cut down on driving time and gas consumption; the farmer; parent; school.

It's a long list.

It's a vital job, highly technical in its scope, but apparently well managed.

resources

Jamaicans have never really asked how the job is done. They sort of take it for granted.

But it requires the right type of equipment, the right expertise and the right type of partnerships with overseas agencies whose resources are far more plentiful.

This year, the Met Office, as most Jamaicans refer to the agency, got $15 million for capital spending on equipment that will see the agency moving further along in its mission to provide Jamaicans with timely and accurate weather forecasting, said service director Sylvia McGill.

Its operating budget was $114 million in the first half of the year.

The agency now reports to the Office of the Prime Minister, a change effected last year. Up to then, it was answerable to the Local Government Ministry.

Operationally, the agency also got a bump - 15 automatic weather stations equipped with solar panels and satellite transmissions which are slated for early installation.

"These will bring real-time meteorological data in to a central location," said McGill, though she adds that there is room for additional equipment which would improve the availability of real-time data.

Additional resources would permit the purchase of more automatic weather stations, intensity gauges and spare parts.

But, Sylvia McGill says, the Met Service is "sufficiently equipped to allow us to carry out our duties and responsibilities", and does "compare very well in the region and other developing countries globally".

The Met Service has three branches - weather, climate and administrative. The forecasting centre is the main hub and is located at the Norman Manley International Airport (NMIA) in Kingston.

The weather branch is concerned with the observation and forecasting of weather conditions over and around the island.

observations

It consists of a radar section that closely monitors and reports on rainfall occurrence within a range of nearly 500 kilometres; an upper-air station (the Caribbean Rawinsonde Network Section) that monitors the characteristics of the upper atmosphere; a synoptic substation operating within the Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay that makes observations and meteorological reports for use in international air navigation; and a National Meteorological Centre at the NMIA that provides weather-forecasting services for general dissemination.

Local meteorologists plot and analyse weather charts to track systems as they develop, and they receive and assess world area forecast charts as a member of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

Information is received through the international satellite communications system (ISCF).

During Tropical Storm Gustav, the forecasting unit was assisted by additional staff from the climate branch.

Days off and leave were cancelled as staff prepared to stay on till the system passed.

It is a standard part of the job.

McGill has a total of 74 staff under her command, of whom 53 are technical people - 13 meteorologists and 40 meteorological technicians.

"There was critical information to be sent on the global telecommunication system pertaining to hurricanes. If the eye of the hurricane passes over the station at Norman Manley Airport, then it is a requirement for us to do an upper-air release of balloons and send the information out," said McGill.

regional centre

The local meteorologists are assisted in hurricane and storm predictions by the National Hurricane Center or the Tropical Prediction Center in Miami, Florida. The Florida agency is designated by the World Meteorology Organisation as the Regional Specialised Meteorology centre (RSMC) for Region 4 .

Region 4 consists of North America , Central America and the Caribbean. Jamaica is a member.

"The Miami centre is equipped with the hurricane-reconnaissance aircraft to fly into tropical storms and hurricanes and also supercomputers to run the various models and make the information available to the region." said McGill.

projections

This information is used along with local information from Jamaica's Doppler radar, automatic weather stations, upper-air stations and observations at the two international airports which are analysed to to arrive at the forecast or projections.

The National Hurricane Center is responsible for coordinating the warnings for the region (WMOP-Region 4).

"It is, however, the responsibility of the individual meteorological services in the region to issue the warnings for their particular island or territory, and these warnings are coordinated by the National Hurricane Centre and carried in their general bulletin," says McGill.

"The bulletins issued by the local met service are tailored to the particular countries."

Jamaica, however, also does forecasting for The Cayman Islands, but that is only if a system - tropical storm or hurricane - affects that country and renders it incapable of carrying out its responsibilities.

In this 2005 Gleaner photo, students of Montego Bay High School are introduced to the workings of a tain gauge by Seaford Ellis of the National Meteorological Service, during career day. - File

improvement

On the question of why so many Jamaicans do not take the work of the Met Office more seriously and fail to prepare upon receiving storm warnings, McGill noted that there has been significant improvement in weather forecasting over the years with the introduction of numerical weather predictions and so the service is one on which Jamaicans can increasingly rely.

It is, after all, the sensible thing to do.

"While there are still uncertainties - the longer the forecast period, the greater is your chance of error - if warnings are issued and the necessary precautions taken, then this would reduce loss of life and damage to property," said the weather forecaster.

avia.ustanny@gleanerjm.com

In this March 2006 Gleaner photo, Delroy Tomlinson of of the National Meteorological Service, examines weather station equipment at the Norman Manley International Airport. With him is Danville Walker, who was then the chief executive of the Office of National Reconstruction, a disaster recovery agency. - File