John Myers Jr., Business Reporter
A two-day conference on 'Cuba and Its Neighbours' considered the country's potential under changed leadership. Seen here (from left) are Rafael Romen; Indira Rampersad, lecturer in political science/international relations UWI, St Augustine; José Raúl Perales, senior associate, Woodrow Wilson Centre for Scholars; and, Professor Jorge Heine, CIGI chair in global governance at the Wilfrid Laurier University in Canada. Perales, Rampersad and Heine presented at the conference, which was hosted by CaPRI at the Mona Visitors' Lodge, University of the West Indies, St Andrew, July 22-23. - Nathaniel Stewart/Freelance Photographer
Cuba could emerge as a regional powerhouse in the next few years as the island, under new president Raúl Castro, revises economic policy and prepares to drill for an estimated five billion barrels of oil in its waters, a Canadian academic has said.
With the price of crude galloping on the world market, hitting oil could provide a significant boost to the country's economy and make Cuba self-sufficient in energy, according to Professor Jorge Heine, CIGI chair in global governance at the Wilfrid Laurier University in Canada.
estimates by the US
He based that assessment on estimates by the United States Geological Survey on the amount of fossil on which the country is sitting.
At a Kingston conference on 'Cuba and its Neighbours: The Challenges of Change', organised by the Caribbean Policy and Research Institute (CaPRI) last week, the Wilfrid Laurier University professor said: "the main challenge in Cuba today is the economy ... . up to 2005, the investment rate was extremely low, at nine per cent, which is about half the Latin American investment rate."
He added, that the country's productivity was very low.
Notwithstanding current challenges, said Heine, the Cuban economy was not in total ruins, referring to statistics which show that the average growth in the region has been six per cent from 2000-2006.
"These obstacles can be removed, and according to some observers, this is precisely what the current government under President Raúl Castro is trying to do," he said at the conference at the Mona campus, University of the West Indies.
"The inkling of the many opportunities that Cuba has today that have not been present in the past can be seen from two sectors, which are two of the most dynamic sectors in the world today - one of them is oil and gas."
Importantly, he said, the drilling for oil in the Florida Straits next year could become a major influence for the United States, lifting the embargo on Cuba.
major industry
The other sector, Heine pointed to was tourism, which, he said, could become a major industry for the communist state should it open up its borders.
About two million tourists currently visit Cuba annually.
With tourism being one of Jamaica's main foreign-exchange drivers, accounting for 10 per cent of gross domestic product, stakeholders have expressed reservations about the opening up of Cuba, fearing that it could spell disaster for the local industry. But Heine said there should be no fear. The key is to forge partnerships between the two countries so that both could benefit.
Jamaican policymakers share the same view and will next month sign a tourism accord with the Spanish-speaking nation of 11 million people, tourism minister Ed Bartlett announced at the opening of the Cuba conference Tuesday.
Heine said current efforts by the Government to establish partnerships with Cuba was a step in the right direction, noting that there are enough tourists for both countries to share.
john.myers@gleanerjm.com