Athaliah Reynolds, Staff Reporter

With recent increases in the cost of living, accelerated by the global hike in food and fuel prices, many Jamaicans could be pushed even further below the poverty line, says an Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) country economist.

Silvano Tjong Ahin said yesterday that based on analysis conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the IDB, Jamaica is among those countries most adversely affected by the ongoing rise in fuel and food prices.

Poverty maps

"Our calculations at the IDB suggest that in the case of Jamaica, where the poorest groups already spend between 60 and 70 per cent of household income on food, the recent food-price increases will increase the percentage of the population living under the poverty line from about 14.3 per cent to 26.2 per cent," Tjong Ahin said.

He was speaking at the launch of the Planning Institute of Jamaica's (PIOJ) islandwide poverty maps and its publication, Issues of Critical Social Concern: Some Investigations. The launch was held at the institute's offices on Oxford Road in New Kingston.

The poverty maps detail Jamaica's poverty levels, parish by parish, using two specific measures - the consumption approach and unsatisfied basic-needs approach.

Based on the PIOJ's findings, eastern parishes such as Portland, St Mary and St Thomas and northern parish St Ann were among the poorest areas in Jamaica. St Catherine, Kingston and St Andrew topped the list of most prosperous parishes.

According to Tjong Ahin, yesterday's launch proved timely in the context of the challenges associated with the recent global spike in food and fuel prices.

"At the global level, there is a clear consensus among the entire developing community that this is a major threat to the ongoing efforts to reduce poverty," he said. "In the case of Jamaica, it could mean a reversal of the important gains made in this area, over the years, in spite of a fairly challenging fiscal- and external-debt situation."

Reversal of gains

Tjong Ahin said IMF calculations also suggested the combined effect of food and fuel price increases could significantly undermine Jamaica's foreign reserve position, resulting in import cover of barely one month.

He noted that, in light of Jamaica's limited fiscal state, public expenditure on subsidies and poverty alleviation programmes must be well targeted and well managed.

athaliah.reynolds@gleanerjm.com