Zia Mian, Contributor
I would like to respond to some of the comments I have received regarding the discussion of ethanol as automotive fuel. The Sunday Gleaner, June 8, article clearly states that the "blend of ethanol beyond 10 per cent-15 per cent requires flexi-vehicles to avoid damage to the fleet". The article did not imply that flexi-vehicles are needed for E-blend below 15 per cent.
Regarding the energy content of E-100 as compared to gasolene, let me draw the readers' attention to a recently published landmark study titled 'A Blueprint for Green Energy in the Americas', which was commissioned by the Inter-American Development Bank. Paragraph C-6.1 on page 44 of the study states that, "E-85 contains nearly 28 per cent less energy per litre than gasolene, while E-100 contains more than 33 per cent less."
Energy content
These data are based on specifications sourced from the United States Environmental Protection Agency. On page 45 of the same study a table titled 'Table 2.1b: Gasolene Litre Equivalents of Biofuels' present the energy content for regular gasolene at 30,145 Btu per litre and for E-100 ethanol at 20,106 Btu per litre.
This translates into relative ethanol efficiency amounting to 66.7 per cent as compared to the energy output from regular gasolene. Thus, one litre of gasolene is equal to one and one half litre of ethanol. The comparative data in this table are sourced from National Association of Fleet Administrators, Inc.
Regarding the economics of converting sugar into ethanol, it varies from country to country. While Brazilian sugar cane yields per hectare are relatively high (about 85,000 kg) and its ethanol production programme has been successful; small sugar producers do need to carefully evaluate the cost/benefit of ethanol production from inefficient operations and their ability to export sugar at special prices (if any).
Agricultural subsidies
In the United States, the so-called 'economics' of ethanol production is driven by very large agricultural subsidies and the fiscal incentives for blending the ethanol into the gasolene. Taxpayers are footing the bill for this programme. Considering transport and other cost factors, claims regarding ethanol's contribution to reducing dependence on imported transport fuels significantly, requires a careful evaluation.
To conclude the series, let me re-cap the energy policy options for Jamaica. They include increased focus on energy efficiency and conservation; incorporating appropriate renewables into the energy supply mix (biofuels, hydropower, solar and wind); ensuring timely erection of adequate power generation capacity to ward off power outages and reliance on high cost diesel generators; developing secure and cost-efficient fuel diversification programmes to reduce dependence on high-cost imported oil; embracing new technologies to increase the efficiency and reduce costs (combined cycle, flexi- and diesel-based vehicles, nuclear technology, etc.); developing necessary enabling regulatory and institutional framework to encourage the introduction of new fuels and technologies; and the future financing of the fuel switch and energy conversion infrastructure.
Under threat
Oil consumption in Jamaica is mainly concentrated in bauxite/alumina, power generation and transport sectors. With the cost of oil at unprecedented levels, the cost-competitiveness of Jamaican alumina production is under threat.
The alumina refineries have to decide how soon they can make a fuel switch to reduce the energy cost of production and what would be the financing requirement for such a switch? The options available to them include imported coal and natural gas and the development of associated infrastructure to receive these fuels.
The Government needs to formulate a comprehensive national approach towards the selection of fuel that would fully address: a) the security of supply and stability of pricing concerns; b) the longer-term cost to the economy; c) impact on the global competitiveness; d) environmental considerations and potentially applicable carbon tax and/or credits; e) financing of the necessary infrastructure; and f) long-term risk management.
In the medium term, Jamaica needs to focus on reducing the oil intensity of the economy which has been increasing at 1.4 per cent per annum. The real GDP-generation cost in Jamaica is one of the highest in the developing world.
High heat rates
In the power sector, the emphasis would have to be on reducing generation heat rates and system losses. The use of combined cycle technology should be actively considered. With the commissioning of combined cycle generation units, the country can improve heat rates and reduce the cost of fuel.
In the bauxite/alumina sector apart from fuel switch, co-generation should form part of the comprehensive national energy strategy. In the transport sector a change in lifestyle is required and the importation of gas-guzzling SUVs would have to be curtailed. This would mean introducing measures to encourage the import of high-efficiency smaller vehicles
Fuel choice
In the longer term, the current fuel choice should be seen as an interim step (2010-2025) towards adopting a cost-effective sustainable option. In this series, it was pointed out that the development of pebble-bed modular reactors (PBMR - nuclear technology) is likely to offer cost-efficient solution to the developing economies that require smaller size green energy plants. Jamaica should actively evaluate and monitor the PBMR developments as they progress in South Africa and in many other countries.
The development of appropriate renewables is important. At present renewable energy accounts for only 5.2 per cent of Jamaica's energy supply mix. In the longer term while the role of renewables in the energy supply mix is likely to remain limited; its share in the national energy mix can be significantly increased. In this regard a well-thought-out strategy for the blending of biofuels in to the auto fuels beyond 10 per cent - 15 per cent should be carefully evaluated.
About 40 per cent of the current available generation system capacity is over 30 years old and has high system heat rates. Considering the high cost of fuel, the power sector needs to focus on the retirement of this generation capacity and replace it with more efficient combined cycle units.
A timetable and investment strategy should be developed to commission replacement generation capacity on a timely basis. With a switch in fuel supply mix and consideration of nuclear as potential candidate in the longer term, the country also needs to establish regulatory and institutional capacity to deal with new fuel as well as nuclear technology.
Conservation options
Solar water heating, and other conservation options, must remain high on the energy policy agenda. The lessons of demand side management programme must be internalised and a comprehensive programme developed and supported through appropriate financing mechanism.
It is projected that an effective efficiency and conservation improvement programme can reduce Jamaica's oil import bill by US$150 million a year by 2015. An appropriate fuel switch can improve these savings by another US$600 million per annum.
Zia Mian, a retired senior World Bank official, is an international consultant on information technology and energy. He may be reached at mian_zia@hotmail.com. Feedback may also be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.
