Byron Buckley, Associate Editor

NINE MONTHS after leading her party to a narrow defeat in a general election, Portia Simpson Miller has cemented herself in the position of president of the People's National Party (PNP).

According to the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll results, Simpson Miller is 18 percentage points ahead of her deputy, Dr Peter Phillips, in popular support for the positions of party president and leader of the Opposition.

Although Phillips himself has not openly challenged Simpson Miller for the presidency, in recent times some party insiders have been agitating for him to throw his hat into the ring. Phillips ran second to Simpson Miller in a bruising four-way race for the party presidency in February 2006. She won 47 per cent of the delegates' votes.

The keenly fought presidential contest fractured the party and eventually led to its defeat in the September 3 general election last year, according to an internal review.

The review team, led by Professor Brian Meeks of the University of the West Indies, reported in January the sentiments of PNP functionaries that "with any other leader, the party would have done much worse in the general election." In addition, the review team noted that "there was a view that having lost the leadership (of the PNP) should change, but this was in the minority."

Johnson's poll, conducted on May 31 and June 1 among 1,008 persons in 84 communities islandwide, appears to corroborate the findings of the Meeks Report. Nearly two-thirds (66.3 per cent) of Simpson Miller's backing for continued leadership of the party comes from PNP supporters who had voted in the 2007 general election, while more than a quarter (26.8 per cent) of her support is from Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) followers.

In contrast, Johnson found low support (19.7 per cent) for Phillips gaining the top party position among Comrades, with 38 per cent of Labourites batting for him.

Simpson Miller has received almost equal backing from men (45.4 per cent) and women (44.9 per cent), while Phillips has received slightly more support from women (28.7 per cent) than men (26.1 per cent).

Last month, Simpson Miller declared to The Sunday Gleaner: "I have no intention to leave politics now; only God Almighty can move me from politics now. I am not leaving to go anywhere, not yet."

'Not surprising'

In reacting to the strong backing for Simpson Miller to remain as PNP president, political commentator Martin Henry says it is not surprising, as "Portia has the personality factors of warmth and caring, and the people-connectedness to be a front runner in any popularity contest." This, he points out, is evidenced by her "enduring popularity in her own constituency of South-West St Andrew despite the severe development challenges there".

But while acknowledging Simpson Miller's prowess in the area of likeability, Henry says she is lacking in the "far more substantive issue" of leadership. "The PNP, therefore, has a major political dilemma to wrestle with in the choice of leadership going into the next election, which may be soon," argues Henry, who is an administrator at the University of Technology.

Ability to lead PNP

Political analyst Charlene Sharpe-Pryce believes "Many Jamaicans never doubted Portia's ability to lead the PNP as president, but rather her ability to lead Jamaica as Prime Minister."

Sharpe-Pryce argues that with the emotional period of the general election campaign over, Simpson Miller's characteristic as a "populist leader" of the PNP has returned to the fore.

"Even though Peter Phillips may make a good leader, the chemistry needed to glue a lasting relationship between him and the people in general is lacking," says Sharpe-Pryce, who is a faculty head at Northern Caribbean University.

Johnson's latest poll, which has an error margin of plus or minus three per cent, also measured a 34-per cent favourability rating and a 35-per cent unfavourability rating for Phillips, who is the shadow minister of national security and leader of government business in the House of Representatives.

byron.buckley@gleanerjm.com.

In yesterday’s lead story, The Gleaner incorrectly identified Dr Peter Phillips as leader of government business in the House of Representatives. Phillips is, in fact, leader of opposition business in the House of Representatives. We regret the error.