Daraine Luton, Sunday Gleaner Reporter

In this file photo, Lorna Golding, wife of then Opposition Leader Bruce Golding, cast her vote at Millsborough Avenue, St Andew, in the 2007 general election, on Monday, September 3. Pundits believe the results of a snap election this year could be close between the PNP and JLP. - File

A SNAP general election within the next few months could favour the Opposition People's National Party (PNP), according to political statistician Anthony Myers.

However, Troy Caine, political historian, does not share this view.

Myers have the PNP winning a possible 33 seats to retake the reins of powers should there be fresh parliamentary elections soon, while Caine has the JLP winning a possible 35 seats.

Pending court rulings, there is the distinct possibility of four by-elections in seats now controlled by persons representing the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).

Gregory Mair (North East St Catherine), Shahine Robinson (North East St Ann), Daryl Vaz (West Portland) and Michael Stern (North West Clarendon) have all been accused of being in breach of the Constitution, and petitions have been filled against them to be removed as members of Parliament.

In the case of Vaz, the court has already ruled that he is not qualified because he has pledged allegiance to a foreign power. The court has ordered a by-election, but the PNP's Abe Dabdoub, who lost the seat, has appealed the decision of Chief Justice Zaila McCalla. He wants the seat to be handed to him directly. Vaz has also appealed the ruling.

Poll rejects

Prime Minister Bruce Golding has already declared that he will not allow anyone to sit in Parliament who has been rejected by the people at the polls.

Myers believes that by-elections in all four constituencies could further threaten the JLP's razor-thin majority in the legislature.

The JLP has 32 seats to the PNP's 28 in the 60-seat House of Representatives.

Despite Daryl Vaz winning West Portland by 944 votes in September, Myers believes it is not a safe JLP seat, and could go either way in a subsequent by-election or a general election.

North East St Catherine, which Mair won from Phyllis Mitchell by 959 votes, could go to the PNP, Myers believe. He opines that it would be tough to beat Stern (933 majority) and Robinson (2,022 majority).

A good PNP showing in by-elections, Myers suggests, could force a tie and result in a general election. Correspondingly, should Dabdoub win on appeal, Myers, like other political watchers, would not be surprised if Golding tolls the bell for fresh polls.

"The effects of the high food prices and the crime situation would work against the JLP," Myers argues. "It would not be wise for Prime Minister Golding to call a general election, or they could be in for a shock result," he adds.

He reasons that a general election would become a "straight fight" between the hard-core PNP and the hard-core JLP. The PNP has about 39,000 more hard-core supporters and, therefore, would win," Myers tells The Sunday Gleaner.

Caine is, however, convinced that the political tide would favour the JLP, which has formed the government for the first time since 1989.

"Should Golding call an election today, you are going to get the normal turnout - just about 60 percent," Caine says. "Most Jamaicans would understand if the prime minister calls an election. While a few may stay away, people would still go out and vote."

The PNP, Caine notes, has several problems, chief among them being difficulty in funding an election campaign and "question marks against its leader, Portia Simpson Miller", who is fighting to stave off internal challenges for the reins of the party.

daraine.luton@gleanerjm.com

South East St Catherine