Daraine Luton, Sunday Gleaner Reporter

THE majority of Jamaicans are not in favour of the holding of a general election at this time, according to the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll.

Parliament is now precariously poised. The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) holds a razor-thin majority of four seats in the 60-seat House of Representatives following its victory in the general election held in September last year. At least five members of Parliament - four on the Government side - are said to be in breach of the Constitution, and are not qualified to sit in the legislature because they hold citizenship in another country as well as Jamaica. This may force Prime Minister Bruce Golding to call by-elections in the seats affected, or a snap general election.

By-elections preferred

However, Johnson and his team found that 54 per cent of Jamaicans preferred the holding of by-elections over a general election; 25 per cent favoured a general election, while 21 per cent were uncertain in their response. The survey was conducted on May 31 and June 1 among 1,008 persons in 84 communities across the island, and has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

In commenting on his findings, Johnson says although only a quarter of the population wants an election, the views are tempered by who party supporters think can win. "Many JLP supporters feel that if there is a new general election their party would lose," Johnson tells The Sunday Gleaner.

The survey found that only 10 per cent of JLP supporters wanted a general election, compared to 52 per cent of People's National Party (PNP) supporters. Among the undecided, 17 per cent wanted a new general election.

"Most PNP supporters believe their party has nothing to lose if there is a general election and that is why they would support it," Johnson reasons.

Last September's election victory ended 18 years in the political wilderness for the JLP so, Johnson says, its supporters are unwilling to risk slipping back into opposition after a mere nine months in government. The risk is real in light of several sauce-economic and political challenges the Golding administration faces.

Local food price increases

The bullish demand on the world's commodities market have contributed to local food prices climbing to astronomical levels. Coupled with that are increases in utility and petroleum costs which have all but crippled the more vulnerable members of the society. There has also been a rise in the crime rate, with 198 persons murdered last month and nearly 700 since the start of the year.

Political commentator Anthony Myers believes these pressing issues have pushed Golding into a tight spot. With a threat to his government's majority in the Lower House, he may be prompted to get a fresh mandate from the electorate.

"I would not want to be in Mr Golding's position now. I think this is what is meant by 'uneasy is the head that wears the crown'," Myers remarks.

According to Johnson's poll findings, a large majority of JLP supporters are in favour of a series of by-elections. So, too, are undecided respondents, while a significant plurality of PNP supporters would also prefer by-elections.

Most want fresh election

Forty-nine per cent of the respondents who want a fresh general election say this would give the PNP a chance to win, while another 25 per cent of respondents believe fresh elections would end the confusion as it relates to the legitimacy of the Parliament.

Cost is one of the reasons that respondents preferred by-elections, as opposed to a general election - 24 per cent believe the country cannot afford a general election. The state spent over $1.5 billion to hold elections last year, $674 million of which was spent on the local government election which took place three months after the September 3 general election.

Daraine.luton@gleanerjm.com