Anthony Myers, Contributor

It would be remiss of me not to extend sincere thanks to Danville Walker, former director of elections, for the yeoman service he gave to our beloved country during his tenure at the Electoral Office.

It is a fact that under his steward-ship, our electoral system moved from a period of nearly 49 years of discussions, disagreements and quarrels over the electoral process, to one in which Jamaicans at home and abroad could repose confidence in the integrity of the workings of the system. Danville Walker was highly commended for his no-nonsense, non-partisan, free, fair and free from fear October 16, 2002 parliamentary general election.

Fear of contradiction

I say without fear of contradiction that the Electoral Office of Jamaica has lost a "giant of a man".

Now, what of the likelihood of a snap parliamentary general election as early as June 2008? This cannot be ruled out whether Abe Dabdoub's Appeal is upheld or not. A careful, in-depth analysis of the Portland Western seat revealed a very close contest between the two major political parties in any election, whether a by-election or a general election, which might be called in the next few months.

JLP stronghold

Fellow Jamaicans, the Portland Western constituency cannot be categorised as a JLP stronghold as some would have us believe. During the period 1944-1972, the JLP won this seat seven consecutive times under the stewardship of revered parliamentarian Leopold Lynch. The margins of victories were 1949 (1,036), 1955 (302), 1959 (69); 1962 (654); 1967 (1,355) and 1972 (698). Therefore, it is fair to say that during that period, it was a marginal JLP constituency.

The PNP tasted victory for the first time in 1976 when Leslie Birch polled 6,292 votes to the JLP's Dan Green's 5,723, a majority of 569. It is interesting to note that in the islandwide landslide for the JLP on October 30, 1980, St Clare Shirley, by polling 6,970 to Evadne Shirley's 5,112 for the PNP, regained control of the West Portland seat for the JLP. This majority of 1,858 was the highest margin of victory received by the JLP in all contests for the West Portland seat.

Consecutive victories

It is also interesting to note that in 1944, Leopold Lynch polled 2,795 votes, which were only 38.7 per cent of accepted ballots, However, he still defeated his six opponents, five of whom were independents; the PNP candidate R.L. Lowe was only able to poll 13.9 per cent of the accepted ballots.

Come February 9, 1989, the PNP candidate Errol Ennis, by polling 6,848 votes, defeated the incumbent St Clare Shirley (JLP) who polled 5,977 votes by a majority of 871. Errol Ennis went on to retain the seat in 1993, 1997 and 2002 by majorities of 1,396; 2,153 and 281, respectively. Four consecutive victories with the highest margin of victory in all elections in West Portland (1944 to 2007) - 2,153. There has been talk about JLP garrison after the advent of the JLP's Daryl Vaz and more so since his margin of victory - 946 votes - on September 3, 2007. This could never be further from reality.

Close election

In closing, based on empirical data that I have at my disposal, whatever election is called in the immediate future, the results will be extremely close and could go either way. To those who might differ, I say: The greatest friend of truth is time. There is a component in the battle for the West Portland seat, which could make all the difference in any election called.

Anthony Myers is a statistician and political analyst. Email columns @gleanerjm.com.