It was Edward Seaga who memorably said that "elections do not set up like rain"; but I wonder whether Prime Minister Golding is trying to prove him wrong? Once the results of the 2007 general election were mathematically close (32 to 28 - really 31 to 28 with one being the speaker), and once the constitutional matter of persons contesting parliamentary seats having sworn allegiance to a foreign power became an issue (which could swing the balance of power in favour of the PNP), taking the country into a new general election was always a strategy.

Retain power

I say a strategy because the so-called constitutional crisis is itself a PNP strategy to retain power. If they so loved the Constitution, they would have made a public statement before nomination day reminding all contenders from all sides of the eligibility requirements. To tell only the candidates on your side, warning them to renounce their US citizenship, and dropping those who choose not to, and then after nomination day, when it is too late for the other side to do anything about it, you make the announcement that some of your opponents are ineligible for nomination, reflects not a love for the Constitution but a love of playing political games to gain political advantage.

And so both sides are playing political games for high stakes: control of the Government, control of the State, control of the public coffers and control of the feeding tree and trough.

Political prophets

Political prophets (of the non-Phinn variety) had predicted that once the result of the election petition against Daryl Vaz was announced (and there was little doubt about the direction of the result), a general election would be called because a one-seat shift to the PNP would make the margin (31 to 29 - really 30 to 29 with one being the speaker). And so, the JLP set itself the task of making the greatest impact it could in the first six months, increase its popularity at the polls, so that it would win a new general election by an increased margin. And so we see new policies on the environment and agriculture and police killings and education and health and so on. In reality, election campaigning has not stopped after the 2007 general election, but indeed has intensified!

The political polls say that if a general election were called now, the JLP would win by a margin of about 40-20. This would seem to be what Prime Minister Golding has been hoping for and planning for. So maybe Edward Seaga is wrong, and elections have set up like rain.

Who wants a general election?

But the same polls say that 70 per cent of Jamaicans don't want a general election right now. And there is a global food crisis - both in availability and in cost. And the Cash Plus crisis has dried up liquidity better than a raft of government paper ever could - which reduces pressure on the exchange rate, but it also means that many people have no ready cash to keep the wheels of the economy turning. [By the way, have you noticed that there is less traffic on the road, and fewer crowds in the banks and the supermarkets and other business places? People tell me that the cause is the Cash Plus crisis, but I don't really know.]

Are the parties preparing for a general election? On the face of it, it does not appear so. Personally, I know two Comrades who ran and lost in the last election who are not standing again, and there may be others. It has been announced that the JLP's Joan Gordon-Webley, who lost in the last election, has resigned as candidate for eastern St Andrew, and as far as I know, she has not been replaced; there may be others. If a general election was announced this week, with just a few days to nomination day, I don't think either party would be ready. When you hear the JLP announcing their slate of candidates, take that as the trumpet call.

Peter Espeut is a sociologist and is executive director of an environment and development NGO.