Wilberne Persaud, Financial Gleaner Columnist

UPON US is a world food crisis alongside a financial crisis of unprecedented proportions.

In India, the harvest has been good and food stocks have risen.

In the United States (US), food banks face reduced supplies and increased demand from people in need as milk, eggs and bread prices rise between 13 and 26 per cent.

Simultaneously, acres of land in Texas once covered in rice remain bare because of the unintended impact of government farm policy.

Food price hike to continue

Will food shortages continue? World Bank President, Robert Zoellick, a few weeks ago warned that in the developing world countries could face social unrest as food prices rise. Events proved him correct.

People in the over 30 countries of which he spoke, spend more than half their budget on food. Food accounts for three quarters of total consumption in many of these countries. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation tells us that cereal stocks are at their lowest in almost three decades.

Lifestyle change

Riots have occurred in Haiti and Gleaner reports indicate middle and low-income house-holds are changing their spending patterns to cope with the reality of higher food prices. Fuel at the pump is also on the increase.

All these events have not simply come upon us. They have been on the cards for a good while now. The call among concerned groups internationally is for developed countries to intervene.

The causes are not too difficult to determine. The question is how to arrive at a solution. Some of the causes are uncontrollable. Shall we say act of God? Perhaps not, because we seem now to be agreed that climate change is in part act of man.

Policy decisions

Then as China's and India's growing middle class expands, demand for animal protein and grain prices goes up. The Iraq occupation, instead of freeing up oil supplies and dampening speculation, seems to have managed to create the opposite.

Finally, policy decisions of the industrialised world have had a devastating impact as their support for biofuel production pulls grain off the food market.

International Monetary Fund estimates for the US suggest that over the last three years, as much as half the increase in demand for corn resulted from corn-ethanol production.

Because the markets for grain are interconnected, feed prices also rise and so, too, does the price of soybeans as production is switched to corn.

In addition, commitments to assist poor countries made in 2005 have not been met. Indeed, they fell last year, and to meet those commitments anytime soon, the industrialised countries would have to increase their aid programmes by perhaps 40 or 50 per cent over the next few years.

Sweet talk wont work

Gordon Brown in Britain's Parlia-ment speaks loudly in favour of some of these initiatives. The Swedes, among others, are totally committed. But regardless of sweet talk, achieving such large increases in aid is unlikely to happen. Unrest across the world is likely to increase before it subsides.

What can Jamaica do in this situation? First, Jamaican participation in international forums will sound good, but have little impact. This is not a reason to remain silent. The good ought never to remain silent.

Short-term solutions

Jamaican demand for food consumption and Jamaican government policy can change none of these conditions in the world economy. The price increases coming down the chain are inevitable. Subsidies may be possible for a brief period. But these will cost, be inadequate and, perhaps, over time be unsustainable.

Continued international donor programmes will assist. And yes, we can eat more cassava. But none of these really provides a solution.

What, therefore, is Jamaica able to do? Here, strategic decisions must come into play. First, an agriculture policy must be created that harnesses all the scientific knowledge available to us about conditions in the Jamaican landscape.

That agreed, is it possible to move the age of farmers down a bit from its 55 to 70-year range? Can young people be encouraged to go into farming? Is it possible for economically viable farming to be labour intensive, even in Jamaica?

For decades, we have known what the problems are: the feeder road system, marketing issues, fertiliser, soil health or lack of it, risk with no insurance possibilities, fluctuations in demand, trade policy. This list can be expanded.

What is to be done?

But there is no way that Jamaica will ever, in the modern world, be able to feed itself. This is an idea whose time has truly come and gone. There are many reasons, but the simplest one is that the interconnected global economy of the information age simply does not allow it. No need for us to waste time on debate.

So what is to be done? Efficiency in what we do produce is paramount whether it be tourism product or yams.

Avoidance of waste in how we go about our daily lives is paramount whether it be SUVs holed up in traffic for two hours daily or the plethora of security guards in every car park of consequence; avoidance of waste is fundamental when it comes to the large number of youth that remains unemployed across the country.

Answers needed desperately

Strategic decisions on these issues are indicated if we are to truly solve any of the problems attendant upon the world food crisis.

Last week, I ended with the same words that now follow: Is there a more integrated approach to solution of multiple problems that present as economic, social, perhaps even cultural ones? Perhaps these issues are the centre of focus for government or strategic groups in the society.

If they are, then perhaps it would help that they be shared with the rest of us.

wilbe65@yahoo.com