Whether or not the National Housing Trust's (NHT) interest rates will be increased, as has been intimated and Opposition Leader Portia Simpson Miller stoutly advocated against in Parliament on Thursday, remains to be seen.

However, it is as near an absolute certainty that they will not decline, though Mrs Simpson Miller said she would fully support the Government in further reducing the mortgage provider's interest rates.

Increasing access to home ownership through not only reducing the NHT's interest rates but also increasing the organisation's loan limits, notably for open-market purchases, was a major plank upon which the People's National Party had based its hopes for a further term in office. That, of course, did not materialise.

Not materialising

And utilising their NHT benefits as the plank with which to bridge the chasm between being designated a tenant and a homeowner is not materialising for many Jamaicans who would have been heartened by the announcement of that increase.

Far outstripping the possibilities of home ownership raised by the NHT increases has been the leap in housing prices, along with the lack of housing solutions in the bracket which would seem within reach of those persons who could access a combined $7 million through the organisation. Close to this time last year, it was reported in The Gleaner that Deborah Cumming, managing director of Century 21/Heave-Ho Properties in Jamaica, said there was a housing shortage in the $5 million to $15 million price range. It was reported that developers were targeting the very high end of the market, while real estate agent Janet Maureen of Coldwell Bankers said, "I have several people now working with $15 million and you can't find anything."

Snob appeal

Of course, not being able to find 'anything' often comes down to a matter of a person's individual taste, and we are not unaware of the snob appeal and status factors in choosing a house. But the point about the lack of housing solutions is well taken.

Coupled with that is the failure of Cash Plus and the uncertain future of other alternative, high-interest investment schemes, which will no doubt cast a shadow over the homeowning aspirations of many.

So, along with many not qualifying for the maximum benefits available under the increased NHT loan limits in the first place, it seems doubtful that an increase of one or two percentage points would prevent a huge number of persons from accessing a home of their own.

Consider fallout

Where the rub lies is with existing mortgage payers, and the Government would be well advised to consider the fallout if more is required from those who acquired their loans at a lower rate than the one they would be then faced with.

It would, in effect, approximate a subprime situation such as that which currently is wreaking havoc in the United States, as persons who qualified for NHT loans based on the lower interest rate would be required to meet higher costs at an interest rate they would not have qualified for.

The powers that be would be well advised to assess the potential economic fallout before making a decision.