"There is no crisis" declared South African President Thabo Mbeki after a recent meeting with his Zimbabwean counterpart Robert Mugabe. "Zimbabwe is in a state of crisis" declared his party, the African National Congress, just a couple days later.

The positions appear irreconcilable. Indeed, they may be and the split they evoke may point towards a possible resolution to the Zimbabwe crisis.

Zimbabwe, and the world, is still awaiting the release of official results from its presidential election. Parliamentary elections went against the ruling ZANU-PF of Robert Mugabe. However, while the presidential poll appears to have removed Mr Mugabe from office, the long delay in its release is being cited by Mr Mugabe's opponents as evidence that he is trying to steal power.

A summit of Southern African governments held last weekend appeared to side with the Zimbabwean opposition. It called for the immediate release of the poll results. It is expected that these would show Mr Mugabe to have been removed from office - a suspicion which unofficial vote tallies would seem to confirm. But everyone knows that regional diplomacy needs the support of Southern Africa's dominant power to be effective. So far, South Africa is holding off.

Superpower posturing

As unhappy as Mr Mbeki probably is with Mr Mugabe, his preference for quiet and patient diplomacy appears unshaken. In part, his approach may result from a South African reluctance to convert its economic power into political leverage. Those who govern South Africa have been shaped by the experience of being victimised by superpower posturing: the apartheid regime's skilful exploitation of Cold War rivalries apparently enabled it to prolong its existence.

Now that the ANC is governing the country, it does not want to substitute one form of bullying for another. Accordingly, South Africa has been very reluctant to throw its weight around the continent too much, and the country attaches a great deal of importance to the sovereignty of its neighbours.

Union movement

Some analysts also suggest that the Zimbabwean struggle is a little too close to home for its lessons to go unnoticed. The opposition to the ZANU-PF is being led by Zimbabwe's trade union movement. Within the ANC, there is similar discontent among the party's all-important trade union allies over the direction of South Africa. Some suppose that Mr Mbeki's instinct is to support a ruling party in its struggle with the unions.

Criminal gangs

Nevertheless, patience with Mr Mbeki is growing thin at home. Aside from the moral dimension being trumpeted by Mr Mbeki's many foes - that African liberation movements lose authority if they overthrow one tyrant only to tolerate another - Zimbabwe is now a security risk to South Africa. The army of Zimbabweans crossing the Limpopo River to take refuge in South Africa is straining the resources of a country already struggling to satisfy its own citizens. Meanwhile, as always happens with such large movements of people, criminal gangs have ridden the human wave to land in South Africa's townships.

Zimbabwean gangs, needless to say, complicate law enforcement in South Africa. For one thing, they are not as well known to the police as are South African gangs. Getting intelligence on them is therefore difficult. All in all, many South Africans want to resolve the Zimbabwean crisis so that some of their unwanted neighbours might then return home.

The new president of the ANC, Jacob Zuma, shares that sentiment. Although he has softened his statements on Zimbabwe since his election, he nonetheless provides a channel through which anti-Mugabe elements in the ANC can express themselves. Mr Mbeki is looking increasingly isolated at home. Mr Mugabe risks losing one of his most loyal allies.