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Stabroek News

Analysts predict Shaw Budget
published: Thursday | April 10, 2008


Shaw

Minister of Finance and the Public Service Audley Shaw will today outline just how he will fund the $489.5 billion net Budget.

In the meantime, at least two financial analysts say Shaw should be able to find the money to finance the Budget without asking Jamaicans to pay more taxes.

The analysts, however, warn that trying to borrow much more on the international market is not an attractive option this time around.

According to financial analyst Ann Shirley, while the administration could increase the tax on a few items, any new tax package will not be significant.

Relying on tax compliance

"The Government will not increase the general consumption tax (GCT), and I doubt there will be a major tax package," Shirley said.

"The finance ministry has already signalled that it will be relying on tax compliance and increased collections."

Shirley, who served as an adviser to former Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller, is hoping that the Government will introduce a tax amnesty while pushing through the well-needed reform to simplify the payment process.

She noted that with rising interest rates internationally, the Government's borrowing will have to focus on the domestic market or project specific lending from international lending agencies.

Managing director of Today's Money, Orville Johnson, expects the finance minister to announce measures to consolidate some taxes while making it easier to make payments.

"The Government could cut taxes, like the stamp duty on real estate transactions, while implementing aspects of the 'Matalon Report' on tax reform," Johnson said.

He agreed that it was unlikely that there would be any increase in the GCT, particularly given the increase in food and energy prices.

"The Government could also announce an increase in the income tax threshold to ease the burden on workers," Johnson said.

But, like Shirley, it is a focus on increased efficiency in tax collection which Johnson expects to provide the additional money needed to finance the Budget.

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