I sat on an American Airlines flight, with my small pack of pretzels and well-rationed juice. It was not enough sustenance for a cockatiel, yet I opened the pack and ate the chips which were far from enjoyable, simply because there was nothing else. I sat in my seat watching my children also chewing on the chips as though they were small bits of sawdust, and thought, this was good practice for life in a depression.

I've grown up hearing about life in the war (World War II) and learnt about life in the Great Depression, moments in history that humble civilisations, where suffering does not discriminate. Despite the fact that the last 20 years in Jamaica have far from felt like a boom, the fact of the matter is that it has been a period of great global prosperity.

The economic bubble in the United States was inflated by spending. Spending that seemed to have no limit, even when earning no longer bore any relation to it. Then came that tiny prick, reality. The homeowners crisis in the US is based on massive foreclosures; quite simply, America went too far into debt.

Not threat of debt

Lucky for us, Jamaicans have little threat of being too far in debt, our banks are far too tight for that. However, our banks will not save us from the effects of the downturn in the US economy, because while they have not assisted us in developing our own economy, what we have become largely dependent on is remittances from our relatives in the US.

We are likely to feel the affects of a slowdown in the US economy more than even Americans, because perhaps the first thing the Americans will cut back on is the remittances and even foreign travel. They may even cut down on their pathetically high consumption of illegal drugs, and who knows what that would do to our 'informal' economy.

Our own 'alternative investment' schemes seem on the verge of collapse, and the effects are already being felt in the real estate market, as investors not able to get their money are backing out of sales agreements. I think each Jamaican knows someone who is waiting and hoping they will get their money out of an alternative investment scheme and you may even know someone who knows they will never get their money back from one.

Writing on the wall

It seems our days of riding on the wave of get-rich-quick schemes, living off the fruits of our neighbours, and not being terribly productive are coming to an end. And the writing on the wall is troubling; it is not a great environment for growth. Yet, this may well be our saviour because if we are forced to, we may well put our energies at working hard and excelling, something I honestly believe we are capable of.

The last 20 years have made our population well accustomed to hard times, yet with the economic environment setting itself up the way it is at the moment, it seems that we are going to have to step things up. Our hard times have included barrels from the US, lots of drug cash floating around, and we still pretty much have a bellyful, but if we don't begin to become competitive and innovative in a legal and aggressive way, it will be pretzels for dinner!