Talk of a looming recession in the United States is doing nothing to dampen the spirits of cruise ship operators who are predicting an increase, although moderate, in passengers in 2008, albeit with a lessening of market share among ports in the Caribbean.
Dan Hanrahan, president and CEO of Azamara Cruises and Celebrity Cruises, told participants at the annual Seatrade Cruise Convention on Tuesday, March 11, that 86 per cent of travel agents surveyed by his company expect this year to be as good as 2007. This despite rising fuel costs, the falling US dollar and a generally bleak world economic outlook. Hanrahan said travel agents are usually a reliable indicator of the fortunes of cruise shipping.
Seatrade is an annual four-day cruise convention and exhibition which brings together industry leaders, interfacing with private and public sector leaders from destinations around the world. It took place between March 10 and 13 at the Miami Beach Convention Centre in Florida.
Optimismm
Hanrahan was one of seven leading cruise executives who spoke at a 'State of the Industry' panel discussion, and who expressed optimism that the industry would weather the current and predicted economic storm. Others include Gerald Cahill, president and CEO of Carnival Cruise Lines; Adam Goldstein, CEO of Royal Caribbean International; Colin Veitch, president and CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line; Stein Kruse, president and CEO of Holland America Line; and Richard Sasso, president and CEO of MSC Cruises, USA.
Hanrahan describes the cruise shipping industry as being "recession-resistant, not recession-proof." Part of this resilience, the panellists agreed, stems from the ability of lines to move vessels around from region to region. In the old days of cruise shipping, Europe was a summer destination with ships being moved to the Caribbean for the winter.
However, in recent years, the lines have created new winter cruise markets and have also extended the season in Europe, the Mediterranean and north Africa. There is also a growing market in Asia, with great expectations developing for China as both a region for cruising and a market for passengers.
Strong in absolute numbers
Despite these developments, however, the panellists argue that the Caribbean still remains strong in absolute numbers even if market share is decreasing. The Caribbean accounted for 43 per cent of cruises booked in 2007. The region's share in the past was above 50 per cent.
Jamaica was among the exhibitors and was represented by Michael Bernard, president, and Trevor Riley, general manager, of the Shipping Association of Jamaica; Rosalie Donaldson, senior vice-president, marketing; and William Tatham, vice-president, cruise and marina operations, of the Port Authority of Jamaica; Sharon Williams, of the Jamaica Tourist Board; Gail Barrett, of Jamaica Trade and Invest; Fritz Pinnock, executive director of the Caribbean Maritime Institute; and other persons representing ground tour operators, the craft vendors association, destination marketing companies and others.
