David Jessop
Just under a week ago, to virtually no one's surprise, Raúl Castro succeeded his brother Fidel as president of Cuba.
Days earlier and after many indications that he would give up his role for reasons of poor health, Fidel Castro had informed the Cuban National Assembly that he would not put himself forward as a candidate for president.
That much of the international media thought this sensational points to the extraordinary lack of realism that exists about the process of change in Cuba, or the parameters and constraints under which this is taking place.
Speaking shortly after being elected by the Cuban National Assembly, President Raúl Castro made clear that his election was a part of a long-term process of change in the structure of the Cuban government.
In doing so, he referred to a time when those who led the 1959 Revolution would no longer be present.
Maintain the strength
He, however, made clear that this moment had not arrived and that his brother would remain an advisory force "while he has the strength to do so", one step away from the new structures of government that will be created. President Castro said that his brother Fidel would be consulted on strategic issues: defence, foreign policy and the country's socio-economic development.
He coupled this with a reaffirmation of the supremacy of the Cuban Communist Party and the significance of its future role when "as a fact of life, the generation that founded and forged the revolution is no longer present".
The main thrust of President Raúl Castro's remarks revolved around stability, gradual and considered change, and the restructuring of government.
Thus, to the surprise of many, José Machado Ventura was elevated to the post of first vice president.
Born in 1930, Machado's involvement goes back to the earliest days of the Cuban Revolution. His appointment came as a disappointment to many Cubans who had been hoping to see members of younger generations assume roles at the highest levels of the Cuban leadership.
Far-reaching changes
Raúl Castro ... succeeded his brother in February.
However, Machado's previous responsibilities integrating socialist ideology into the everyday affairs of Cuba's education programmes and his key role as a trusted adviser to Raul Castro probably underlines the Cuban leadership's desire to deliver, gradually, a range of far-reaching changes in a way that does not create internal divisions and leaves the country's ideological path untouched.
Another key appointment as Defence Minister was Major General Julio Casas Regueiro, the architect of perfeccionamiento empresarial, Cuba's proven enterprise enhancement programme that has brought efficiency and profit to state companies in tourism and other areas run by the military. His appointment points to the adoption of this model as the way forward for Cuban enterprise development.
In addition, 13 new members were elected to the 30, person Council of State; but there were no ministerial changes, a situation thought unlikely until wide-ranging reforms are undertaken to the structure of Government.
Raúl Castro's speech contained a number of important indications about what will happen next. He noted that the National Assembly had agreed "to analyse the composition of government in a session later this year. This is a timely decision", he said, "as we are not only dealing with appointments but rather with decisions on which changes might be required in the system of institutions pertaining to the central administration of the state, and this needs more time".
In his statement, President Raúl Castro reiterated previous comments made in respect of the "difficult" challenges that Cuba faces and the changes needed to overcome these. Steps will be taken to streamline the state, reduce the "enormous" number of meetings, rules and regulations, and boost productivity and efficiency. Criticism and debate "within socialism" will be encouraged. In other words, he recognised that the Cuban decision-making system was inefficient and holding back development. At the same time, he stressed the need to "strengthen discipline and social order" and called for patience.
Some policy changes, it seems, will be enacted more speedily than others. In the next few weeks, he said, steps will be taken to remove a number of prohibitions and regulations.
However, eliminating other procedures, including those that are influenced by US policy towards Cuba, will take more time.
More studies are also required, he added, before implementing Fidel Castro's ideas on "the progressive, gradual and prudent revaluation of the Cuban peso," as outlined in March 2005.
Double currency
"We will keep delving into the phenomenon of the double currency in the economy," President Castro said in a further indication that Cuba intends to unify its convertible and non-convertible peso, a move that would be hugely popular among Cubans who have no external source of freely convertible currency.
To avoid "traumatic effects or inconsistencies", any changes related to the currency will be made mindful of the "wage system, retail prices, [and] subsidies", he added. He also suggested a new system of rewards based on the merits of those who work with their hands and with their minds, and that increasingly, economic initiatives would involve the decentralisation of power from central government.
What this amounts to is a signal of far-reaching change, albeit introduced gradually and after reflection. It suggests that the Cuban leadership is mindful of a growing desire among most Cubans for more materially in the areas of food, housing and transport, and an end to the inequalities between those who have access to foreign exchange and those who do not.
The cause of this incremental approach to change appears to be the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US presidential race; internal economic pressure caused by the increasing costs of energy and food imports; the difficulty Cuba is having raising new credits as a result of the global credit squeeze; and, the considerable financial commitment to the extensive renewal of its health and education infrastructure seem.
As might be expected, the reaction from the United States was low key and negative, while Europe has indicated that it might develop a constructive dialogue, involving a gradual engagement in areas of common interest, such as the environment and climate change.
More interestingly, there have been some suggestions that Brazil might adopt a new approach that deepens its relationship. Brazil's leading newspaper, Folha de Sao Paulo, has suggested that President Raúl Castro might look to Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva to facilitate a dialogue aimed at normalising hemispheric relations.
Much that was said by Raúl Castro provided important indications of what will drive future change. The average age of Cuba's newly elected National Assembly is now 49 years, suggesting the inevitability of change, when new structures for government are agreed.
For the rest of the Caribbean, these are important messages. Change will be gradual, not destabilising, and relations will remain as close with Cuba's new leadership as they have been in the past.
David Jessop is director of the Caribbean Council. Email: david.jessop@caribbean-coun cil.org.
