We would have been surprised only if Fidel Castro had announced that he would seek reinstatement as Cuba's president when the National Assembly meets this coming Sunday.

Indeed, in the 19 months since he temporarily ceded power to his brother, Raul, the minister of the armed forces, Castro has, in his typically enigmatic style, been preparing Cuba and the world for the end of his leadership. After all, Fidel Castro is 81, and most Cubans have known no other leader for 50 years.

As he said in his essay announcing his resignation, "It would be a betrayal of my conscience to accept a responsibility requiring more mobility and dedication than I am physically able to offer."

There will be much time to assess Fidel Castro's legacy and his place in history - the man who defied 10 United States presidents, maintained one of the world's last remaining communist states, and was seen by his critics as an authoritarian who betrayed his revolution by crushing democracy and violating human rights.

Yet, Castro was one of the iconic figures of the 20th century, revered for defying the United States, surviving attempts to topple him (even by assassination); revered also for perceived social gains he achieved in Cuba, and for his spirit of internationalism.

The more immediate concern, in our view, is how the international community, particularly the United States, which maintained a trade embargo on the country for nearly as long as Castro has been in power, responds to the changes in Havana. So, much attention will be on who emerges as the long-term leader.

President Bush, happily, was measured in his initial response to the unfolding events, calling on the international community to "work with the Cuban people to build institutions necessary for democracy".

The British Foreign Minister David Miliband hoped for a future of "political progress founded in democracy and human rights".

There was no demand for the immediate dismantling of Cuba's communist system. That would have been unwise on several counts, not the least coming from a lame-duck administration in Washington.

First, Fidel Castro is not dead; he is likely to remain a respected figure who will wield influence behind the scenes. Cuba's new leaders will be mindful of this.

Moreover, the Americans have the Iraq example of what happens when you precipitously dismantle a state. It is usually a recipe for anarchy.

It will be of interest, therefore, to observe the stance of the contenders for the presidency, particularly the Democratic Party contestants for the nomination, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and how they posture to the Cuban lobby, particularly its manifestation in Miami.

It would make sense, we feel, to coax the post-Castro leadership rather than insisting on immediate overthrow of the system. Engagement of the regime would be a practical first step, including a start to the lifting of the embargo.

The Americans and others also need to be aware that while Raul Castro may be confirmed as president on Sunday, he is not likely to be long-term leader. He will, at best, fill the gap until the emergence of one of the younger leaders, perhaps Felipe Perez Roque, the de facto prime minister, or even Jose Luis Rodriguez, the economy and planning minister.