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EDITORIAL - Kenya's stability on fragile ground
published: Wednesday | January 23, 2008

This week, Kofi Annan, the former secretary general of the United Nations, is beginning a role in Kenya which this newspaper had proposed for two eminent Commonwealth personalities, Jamaica's ex-Prime Minister P.J. Patterson, and former Nigerian President, Olusegun Obasanjo.

We had felt that Messrs. Patterson and Obasanjo had the stature and could secure the trust of all sides in the political crisis that has developed in Kenya, following the country's disputed presidential election. More than 600 people have already died in politically motivated violence and Kenya is at risk of plunging into communal and ethnic warfare.

For this reason, we hope that Mr. Annan has the kind of success that eluded his fellow Ghanaian, the country's president, John Kufuor, who, as head of the African Union, was unable to coax the disputing parties into negotiations.

Indeed, President Mwai Kibaki insists that he is the country's legitimate leader after the poll early this month, while the Orange Democratic Movement's Raila Odinga is adamant that the election was stolen.

Indeed, Mr. Odinga and his supporters point to the poor showing of Mr. Kibaki's party and its allies in the parliamentary vote that took place at the same time as the presidential election. It was the Opposition, led by Mr. Odinga, that won the majority.

Mr. Odinga, in pressing his claim, has proved that he can bring thousands of protesters unto the streets, from his own Luo tribe and from other ethnic groups. At the same time, however, President Kibaki clearly maintains control of the state apparatus, particularly of the security forces, which, in too many cases, have not been shy to shoot at demonstrators.

Things are complicated by the attacks mainly on Kikuyus, President Kibaki's tribe, and the reprisals which this trigger. An estimated 200,000 people have been displaced by the violence.

None of this is good for Kenya. For as vindicated or hard-done that either side in the Kenyan conflict may feel, it cannot be in either's interest that resolution be sought by means which deepen the crisis.

Both Mr. Odinga and Mr. Kibaki have ample evidence in Africa, and in countries not far from Kenya, of the disintegration that often sets in when extreme and violent solutions are sought to political problems. In most cases, it is difficult, if not impossible, to rebuild social cohesion. Right on Kenya's doorstep, for instance, Somalia proves the point.

Of course, Kenya has a reputation for relative stability and has been something of a model in East Africa. But it could find that the foundation on which this stability stands is fragile.

That fact is that there are over 40 ethnic groups in Kenya, with the Kikuyus being the largest single bloc, but not a majority. There is some underlying resentment regarding the role of Kikuyus in areas of leadership, which has told in the recent violence. The danger is that a political dispute that is not specially defined in ethnic terms could deteriorate into an out-and-out communal feud, which neither side can fix.

Hopefully, Mr. Annan can get the parties around the negotiating table, perhaps setting the course for a unity government and, ultimately, a new election.


The opinions on this page, except for the above, do not necessarily reflect the views of The Gleaner. To respond to a Gleaner editorial, email us: editor@gleanerjm.com or fax: 922-6223. Responses should be no longer than 400 words. Not all responses will be published.

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