- John Rapley

The results from the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries were full of surprises. In consequence, the race for the White House looks like it may now become long and hard-fought on both sides of America's political aisle.

The biggest surprise on the Democratic side was Hillary Clinton's narrow victory in New Hampshire after polls had predicted a comfortable win for Barack Obama. Pollsters are still digging over the entrails of their prognoses to understand where they went wrong, with one theory being that white working-class voters overstated their willingness to vote for a black man.

Be that as it may, Hillary Clinton's electoral prospects remained alive for the next race: Nevada's primary this weekend. My worry all along has been that the race for the Democratic nomination would see the reappearance of a nasty form of racial politics. Mr. Obama is starting to find that while many African Americans gravitate towards him, some of his harshest critics will be black.

Although this week's debate tried to tone down the language, race is an element in the Democratic campaign that is unlikely to go away. Nor will it likely play along conventional lines. It will go beyond pitting a white against a black candidate. The Clintons have many influential allies in the African American elite who will go to bat for them.

the ill temper

Some will challenge Obama's right to speak for their communities. Dick Morris, once an adviser to Bill Clinton, frets that the Clintons will also use 'unelectability' as a codeword for 'black' to win white votes. But even his suspicion reveals the ill temper in the Democratic Party.

On the Republican side, John McCain's return from the political graveyard, where the pundits had consigned him just a few months ago, has been striking. In fact, the principal theme of the Republican campaign now appears to be the struggle between the party establishment and the rank and file. Establishment candidates, like Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, struggled to get going. Michigan's primary this week was billed as a make-or-break one for Romney. His victory there put three Republicans into contention, with more hoping to revive their campaigns in the south.

It is likely that the Republican establishment will do what it can to thwart the rise of McCain. Considered too much of a maverick, McCain's only redeeming feature in the eyes of many party big-wigs is that he is not Mike Huckabee. The affable preacher sends shivers down the spines of the party's top brass.

Young voters

If there is one thread which appears to run through this whole campaign season, and is showing up in both parties, it is the appearance of a new generation of young voters. Long written off as apathetic or self-interested, young voters have turned out in unexpectedly large numbers. Disproportionately, they are turning their backs on party establishments, and are providing much of the support for Messrs Obama and McCain.

Older voters, and in particular the baby boomers, appear to be happier with the establishment candidates. In the Democratic Party, there appears to be a serious division of opinion between first-time voters and the postwar generation over Mrs. Clinton, with the former far less likely to see her (and her husband) in a favourable light.

It remains to be seen how this will play out. But there would be a delicious irony if the baby boomers, who celebrated their own youthful rebellion in the '60s and '70s, found themselves shoved out by a disdainful generation of voters who - say the greying hippies - have too little respect for their elders. Youth, it appears, remains youth.