The 'permanent campaign' which the United States presidential election has become is, in part, a legacy of an age when states were more or less independent, and the presidency a relatively minor function. Then, presidents were chosen by electors hand-picked by the states. As time went by and democracy sank deeper roots in the country, and as the presidency assumed more importance, states began to turn the selection of electors over to the voting public.
Nonetheless, the electoral process was, and remains, managed by the states, even when the offices chosen are federal. And as the parties turned the selection of their presidential nominees over to the public, state laws regulated how these processes were to be managed. Thereby emerged the inordinately complicated selection process which now bewilders us all.
Come the television age, the concept of the permanent campaign was enshrined by the necessity to constantly retain the support of potential electors. But if the result has been an overkill of politics, to some American commentators, it is still a good thing. Lacking the government-in-waiting that prevails in Westminster-style systems like our own, the U.S. uses this method to subject potential presidents to the intense scrutiny needed to determine whether a candidate really reflects the popular will.
Nevertheless, many observers expected that the permanent campaign might wrap up early in the New Year with decisive victories by the front-runners. This did not happen. The surprise victory of the populist Mike Huckabee has widened even further an already open Republican race. Yet even more striking, and of interest to most observers, was the third-place finish in Iowa of the presumed Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. Her team had laboured for months to wrap her campaign in an aura of inevitability. Now they are scrambling to craft a new strategy.
One simply has to listen to the comments of American journalists to realise that Barack Obama has ignited a flame that nobody expected to burn, at least not yet. Turnout in the Iowa Democratic caucus soared, and first-time voters ran to Mr. Obama in droves. And even some of the most jaded observers could not help but marvel that a man with an African father and a Muslim heritage won over the white, conservative state of Iowa.
It is an interesting time. The New Hampshire primary tomorrow now comes into sharp focus. Mrs. Clinton is under intense pressure to do well, lest her campaign look to be in crisis. It is undoubtedly too early to write off her candidacy. With the Clintons' network, funds and popularity within the party, Mrs. Clinton can draw upon immense resources to relaunch her campaign.
All the same, it is probably not too much of an exaggeration to say that Barack Obama made history last week. In an America that seems ever more suspicious of outsiders, ever more sensitive to a Muslim foe, and ever saddled with the legacies of racism, there was much for all of us to welcome in the Iowa results.
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