John Rapley

The seemingly interminable United States (U.S.) presidential campaign moves up a gear today. After months of campaigning, electors in Iowa will begin the process of selecting delegates to the party conventions. Following the Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire will hold its primary next week. Then in the coming months, one after another state will follow suit. Nearly two dozen of them will select their delegates on February 5, making it possible that a clear picture will emerge then.

The conventions themselves will not occur until next summer. Were a candidate to lock up most of the delegates during the primaries, the convention would become a mere formality. This, in fact, is now the norm in U.S. politics. Nonetheless, because of the tightness of the Democratic race, there is a chance that the party's presidential nominee won't be known until next summer.

Democratic campaign

The Democratic campaign is probably generating the most interest. This is because the current unpopularity of the Republican Party gives a strong edge in next year's presidential election to the eventual Democratic nominee. But, too, former first lady Hillary Clinton is in the running.

Polls place Mrs. Clinton at the head of her party. But the race is tightening. Barack Obama has generated a lot of enthusiasm, and John Edwards cannot be counted out.

The Republican campaign, in contrast, has something of the feel of a bunch of vultures picking over a carcass. Whoever gets the nomination will have to swim into a powerful tide this year. Still, even though the odds are running strongly against the Republicans, overconfidence could hurt the Democrats. Early in 1992, Bill Clinton seemed like the sacrificial lamb the Democrats were throwing up against the seemingly unstoppable George Bush (the elder). A year later, Mr. Clinton was sworn in.

Things are different this time around. Both the administration and Congress are deeply unpopular at the moment. For a Republican to win the election next year would involve the political equivalent of pulling a rabbit from a hat. Still, many Republicans are counting on their secret weapon: the nomination of Hillary Clinton.

Many Republican strategists - and not a few Democratic ones - believe that the nomination of Hillary Clinton would demobilise the Democratic left, and energise the Republican right. Republicans want nothing more than to rerun the Bill and Hillary show, because they think it's their one ticket to victory.

Fear of this factor is turning many Democrats away from the Clinton bandwagon. Still, it looks unstoppable. The Clinton machine is nothing if not tight, and it has a deep reservoir of talent and tricks upon which to draw.

My own prediction remains the same as it has been for years: Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination in 2008, and lose the election. The question will be, will we still see a Democratic tide wash across Congress, or might a Republican presidential victory rescue the party in its other election?

Head-to-head polls

From today's vantage-point, that outcome seems unfathomable. But an interesting possibility looms. John McCain, written off as dead in recent polls, has enjoyed something of a bounce of late. Were he to go from strength to strength, and make his peace with Republican conservatives, he would present the Democrats with an opponent on which they had not reckoned. Head-to-head polls suggest he could beat Hillary, even if an election were held today.

It seems strange that a small state like Iowa could decide so much. But U.S. nomination battles are about momentum. And if any candidate emerges strong tomorrow, then holds that lead for a few more weeks, he or she will be off to the races.