The incumbent Mwai Kibaki has emerged victorious in Kenya's presidential election. It will require the utmost skill on his part to prevent the country from descending into a period of political and ethnic instability with potentially deleterious consequences for global security.

For, whatever else may be its problems or the imperfections of its democracy, Kenya has largely been a moderating and stablising influence in the troublesome east African region. But as the November 2002 hotel bombing of an Israeli-owned hotel and the allied attempt to shoot down an Israeli airliner showed, al-Qaida terrorists and other Islamists would love to extend their toe-hold in the country as part of a proxy war with the West.

Beyond geopolitical and security concerns, Jamaica and the Caribbean have an interest in Kenya being a united and stable state - for several reasons. Not least of these is that as mainly children of the African diaspora, we, in the Caribbean, are empathetic with black people on the continent. Moreover, like Kenya, most of the members of the Caribbean Community (Caricom) are former colonies of Britain, sharing a common colonial experience and similar processes towards independence.

Indeed, Jamaican legal and political figure Dudley Thompson played a critical role in ensuring that the people's choice, Jomo Kenyatta, was available to lead Kenya into independence. Thompson was at a time working in what was then Tanganyika - today's Tanzania - when he was by secret messenger informed that Kenyatta was being held in an isolated jail and about to be tried for ostensibly leading the Mau Mau rebellion. It was Thompson who put together the legal team that fought Kenyatta's case and ensured his eventual freedom.

In its more than 40 years of independence, Kenya, not unlike Jamaica, has meandered through periods of political instability and turbulence which have tested its democracy. For a long period of its existence, it was effectively a one-party, though not necessarily authoritarian, state.

But by the early 1990s, under pressure from the West and in response to global realities, multi-party democracy and economic liberalisation were back in vogue. Political democracy appeared to have been firmly entrenched by 2002 when Mr. Kibaki, with the backing of a wide coalition of parties, came to office on an anti-corruption platform that swept away the long-ruling Kenya African National Union (KANU). But within three years, that coalition had fallen apart on the issue of constitutional reforms and accusations that Mr. Kibaki had failed to tackle corruption, which had now enmeshed his administration.

Mr. Odinga, a former close ally, is one of those who deserted Mr. Kibaki over his presumed failure at power-sharing, paving the way for last Thursday's bitter and close presidential contest.

Both camps, prior and during the vote, complained of vote-rigging by the other and each claimed victory ahead of official announcements by the electoral authorities. But given the sweeping defeat of several key members of Mr. Kibaki's cabinet, it seems that the mood of the Kenyan people, recent robust economic growth notwithstanding, was against the current leadership. The uncertainty over the outcome of the poll has caused riots and looting, especially in Mr. Odinga's strongholds where there were suspicions that the election was being stolen from their man.

It is important that both men move quickly to calm supporters, declaring their respect for the outcome of the process and to continue any fight via the judicial system. That is the only way to strengthen Kenyan democracy.

Messrs Kibaki and Odinga, should they do anything to encourage instability, may recall Mombasa and the fact that their country shares borders with Sudan and Somalia. Once the genie is out of the bottle, it may be difficult to recapture.