President of Bank of Nova Scotia Jamaica, William 'Bill' Clarke, says the high-return schemes that Jamaicans have invested billions in will come crashing down. - File

Gleaner editor Barbara Ellington speaks with banker William 'Bill' Clarke about his take on several issues, including business prospects and the high-return investment schemes that have been exciting investors.

BE: How do we stand globally in the medium and long term where our economic health is concerned? That word 'recession' keeps cropping up. America sneezes, we catch a cold; housing markets are in a slump.

WBC: The United States is (heading into) recession, but China, Canada and Europe are growing. This is not new for America; they will bounce back.

Each downtime presents opportunities. We ar to them and we may feel it too.

We will have to start growing; people will have to start earning again rather than believing we can just put money into risky investments to become millionaires overnight.

Unfortunately, we are not a working nation, but we love to make quick money. We need to invest in small businesses and create our own wealth. Oil prices are a problem worldwide and we are dependent on it. That will negatively impact our economy. It will take a process to see the kind of employment that will lead to jobs, wealth and diversification of business. Now everyone is doing the same thing (buying and selling).

BE: What do you see as the fastest-growing business idea and what are some of the small businesses that you would fund?

WBC: Education must be relevant and prepare the student to become entrepreneurs. We have to find things that will add value to the indigenous fruits and foods we have. Our objective is to create opportunities for the knowledge base that exists. Projects that we would fund must be viable in agri-business, showing diversification of processes and be accompanied by a solid business plan.

We would love to see exciting projects and in the late 1990s we even set up a special loan scheme for agriculture-related projects, but the response was disappointing.

Whether it's coffee in the Blue Mountains or something in St. Elizabeth where they lack proper irrigation, there are viable business ideas here and we don't want to replicate what countries with which we cannot compete are doing.

For example, the Jamaican diaspora is growing and those folks crave Jamaican food, so we have to stick to producing our own unique brands before persons overseas copy and do them.

Scotiabank will fund serious and viable projects like those.

BE: Many people are hoping for the return of a vibrant manufacturing sector in Jamaica. Will that happen?

WBC: No, we cannot compete. Raw material is expensive; conversion, energy costs, security costs and other inputs are too high.

Jamaica has a great opportunity in agri-business, especially processing from excess fruits and vegetables.

Our challenge is to get beyond being a nation of samples. Like I said before, we have many things at our disposal that we can develop into big business.

BE: Give me your view on the recent increase in quick money-making schemes; just about everyone is trading in foreign exchange. What do you think about them?

WBC: We like quick money. No one is willing to work, so with offers of from 10 to 18 per cent, these are attractive.

We did a calculation on one of them that said if you keep your money with them for five years, you get 18 per cent. If you invest $100,000 for five years at 18 per cent per month, at the end of five years you will have over $6 billion. Where does that make sense? People have been sucked in badly. This includes educated people, and many elderly church people are being sucked in and told that these investors have a gift from God.

There are billions flowing through these schemes. When this crash comes, it will be louder than the World Trade Center.

BE: Have there been significant outflows from Scotiabank into these clubs?

WBC: Yes, but it has not threatened the banking system because people are smart enough not to put all their resources in such schemes.

But, we have also seen the inflows and it's a frightening scenario because my honest belief is that they will crash.

Any day there is more going out than coming in, we will see the runs.

BE: So what about private citizens learning to trade?

WBC: As far as I am concerned, there is no legitimate investment that you can make that will give you over 100 per cent return. Money is coming from other sources. This cannot be legitimate business.

BE: How would you advise those in charge of regulatory and governing bodies to deal with them?

WBC: They have to be regulated or people have to be told exactly what they are. This government, as well as the previous one, has been far too silent.

There should have been proactive measures to protect the public who are at risk.

Journalists have fallen down too. The truth must be told about these schemes that do not make mathematical sense.

But we have regulators and they must act too. I hear that the diaspora in the north east corridor of the United States are now being recruited into them.

barbara.ellington@gleanerjm.com