Susan Gordon, Business Reporter

Curtin

Business and consumer confidence surged in the third quarter, just ahead of the national elections, Professor Richard Curtin said Tuesday, on expectations of either a change in government or a shift in policy.

The elections were held September 3.

Curtin, the head of the Survey Research Centre at the University of Michigan and a consultant to the Jamaica Conference Board, said 46 per cent of all consumers surveyed anticipated that the economy would grow in the year ahead, while 45 per cent of firms had the same expectations, up from 32 per cent in the second quarter.

More than half the consumers surveyed based their expectations on new economic policies to be brought about by a change of Government, while 80 per cent firms cited the prospects for a new government and consequently economic growth.

Consumers also had great expectations for increase in job opportunities.

Curtin's findings were from the third quarter survey of local business and consumer confidence during the period August 7 through to September 10, 2007.

The professor said most of the data was gathered in the pre-election period.

"For the first time since 2001, more consumers expected more jobs rather than fewer jobs during the year ahead," he told business interests at the survey launch hosted by the conference board and survey sponsor NCB Capital Markets Limited.

The conference board is the research arm of the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce.

Curtin said that 42 per cent of all consumers expected jobs to become more available, even though they expected their income prospects to remain unchanged.

Consumers expectations were raised because of promises to introduce changes during the election campaign and that these high expectations must be astutely manage to avoid a sudden collapse of consumer confidence, said the professor.

Consumer confidence rose 30 per cent overall, while business confidence was up by 11 per cent over the last quarter, which was regarded as a record level.

The down side of the business survey was tha 42 per cent of firms equivalent to the period before thought it was a good time to invest, more firms felt it was a bad time.

Their reason was the uncertainty of the outcome of the election at the completion of the survey.

Professor Curtin said spending plans for vehicles and vacation improved in the third quarter 2007 survey, with plans to buy vehicles rising from 17 per cent in the second quarter to 25 per cent in the third quarter.

susan.gordon@gleanerjm.com