( L - R ) SHAW, LYN

Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) Audley Shaw, yesterday steered clear of what would have been the biggest political upset when he defeated People's National Party (PNP) first-timer Paul Lyn in the run for the Manchester North East seat.

The victory now strengthens speculations that Shaw will be named in Bruce Golding's Cabinet as the Minister of Finance, a position which he has been shadowing for many years.

Shaw's win is a surprise as, according to the pollsters, he was heading for trouble. However, Shaw was confident of his victory to the point where he promised to give his opponent $1 million if he lost the seat.

Based on voting patterns since 1997, this seat is consistent in its support for the JLP. The PNP's only other victory was in 1989 when, in a very close contest, Calvin Lyn defeated Shaw by 210 votes.

In 1993 when the PNP won 52 of the 60 constituencies islandwide, including three in Manchester, the JLP regained control of Manchester North Eastern as Shaw defeated Kenneth C. Neita (PNP), by 795 votes.

For Shaw to have won this seat in 1993 speaks volumes for his adeptness at marshalling support.

Shaw polled 6,965 votes compared to his two opponents - Errol Gentles (PNP), 5,568, and Wayne Chen (NDM), 1,851, demonstrating his capacity to defy great odds in turning back the challenge of two formidable candidates. In 2002, Shaw won the seat again by 858 votes.