John Rapley

The appearance of Islamist militias in two Lebanese refugee camps has rung alarm bells in many capitals, not just Beirut and Washington, D.C. Just what is going on is unclear, but it is worrying to many observers.

Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon have long been no-go zones to the Lebanese state. Their policing has always been left to Palestinian factions, traditionally nationalist fighters loyal to Fatah and its deceased leader, Yasser Arafat. The appearance of Islamist militants in recent months has not gone unnoticed. However, their strength did not become apparent until they started fighting with the Lebanese army.

The emergence of Islamist militias, which apparently take their inspiration from al-Qaida, appears to echo what is happening in the Palestinian-administered Gaza Strip, though it may not be directly related to it. In the Gaza Strip, the violent contest for power between Hamas and Fatah has resulted in a vacuum. Into this, Islamist fighters - apparently returning from Iraq - are inserting themselves.

Palestinian lands

Their emergence is deeply worrying to both Hamas and Fatah. Fatah, the traditional power in the Palestinian lands, dislikes any challenges to its authority. As for Hamas, while it is itself an Islamist movement, it does not fit into the al-Qaida network. These new groups thus threaten Hamas's own position.

There is some evidence to suggest that the militias active in the two Lebanese camps are also being manned by combatants returning from Iraq. And, apparently comprising fighters of various nationalities, they seem to fit the al-Qaida mould, both operationally and ideologically. But the similarities between what is happening in Lebanon's refugee camps, and what is happening in Gaza, may not go much further than that.

There is some evidence that the militants in Gaza are criminal elements who have turned to Islamism for organisational purposes. In Lebanon, suggestions are rife that other, even more sinister, elements may be behind the upsurge in Islamism.

Lebanon, like Gaza, has its own indigenous Islamist movement in Hezbollah. But like Hamas, Hezbollah arguably lies outside the al-Qaida network, being closer to Iran (whose antipathy to al-Qaida is mutual). Some have suggested that the relatively sudden appearance of well-armed militants in the camps has resulted from an effort by the Lebanese state to counter-balance the Shi'ite Hezbollah with a Sunni Islamist force.

Hand of Syria

Nothing could be further from the truth, maintains the Lebanese government. For its part, it sees the hand of Syria in all this. By supporting these militias, it suggests that Damascus can destabilise the pro-Western Lebanese government. This would further tip Lebanon's delicate balance - given that Hezbollah is already sympathetic to Syria - towards its Syrian rival.

Lebanon being what it is, it is also not inconceivable that private interests - war profiteers come readily to mind - might also have a hand in the conflict. But what is clear is that while the Lebanese government faces a direct threat to its authority, it is poor Palestinians who are suffering the most from the conflict.

Not only the Lebanese army is fighting the militias. Fatah fighters are battling them as well. And reports from the northern camp suggest that neighbourhood vigilante squads are also confronting the Islamists.

However, for as long as the stand-off continues between Hamas and Fatah in Gaza, it seems likely that the ground may remain receptive to these new militias. Western governments, along with Israel, may have to put aside their long-standing antipathy to Hamas, and work to shore up its own, barely-functioning coalition with Fatah, if a concerted assault on the Islamists is possible. Short of that, the conditions which breed terrorism look likely to persist.