File
Scenes from the opening of parliament at Gordon House, Duke Street.

Garwin Davis, Sunday Gleaner Writer

OCHO RIOS, St. Ann:

Never this close to controlling Gordon House in almost 27 years, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) feels its time has come and that the country is now ready for a change in political direction.

And while acknowledging that it would be premature, if not foolhardy, to write off a government that has not tasted defeat in 17 years, the JLP said it was energised by the fact that so many persons who had previously exercised a level of apathy as it relates to voting, are now stepping up to the plate, wanting to be involved in the democratic process.

"We are by no means carried away by the success we have been having," opposition spokesperson on finance Audley Shaw said. "What we are happy about is what we are seeing on the ground. It is quite clear that people are fed up and genuinely want a change. The JLP has spelt out its vision for the country and people are now ready to join us in moving forward."

But as confident as the JLP seems to be, the party is also keenly aware of the tricky make-up of the political landscape, knowing fully well that the People's National Party's (PNP) sure-win garrison seats gives the governing party a telling advantage even before a vote is cast.

12 seats in the bag

"With at least 12 seats already in the bag, the PNP only has to win about 19 more to form the government," reminds Robert McKenzie, PNP delegate and businessman from Ocho Rios. "The JLP on the other hand, with west Kingston, Central Clarendon and maybe central St. Catherine as their only guaranteed seats, must win at least 28 more."

McKenzie pointed out that the PNP starts with a nine-seat (garrisons) advantage. "Which ever way you want to look at it, if there is not a massive swing as was the case in 1980, then it would always be an uphill task for the JLP to win a general election in Jamaica," the PNP councillor reasoned.

The PNP's landslide victories in 1989 and 1997 had reduced the garrison debate to a mere moot point. All that would change, however, in 2002 when - many observers remain convinced - that without the sure-win garrison seats, the JLP would have formed the government. In the closest election in 30 years, the PNP won 34 seats to the JLP's 26. At least five of the seats were decided by less than a 1,000 votes. To this day, the JLP has not formally conceded. Former United States President Jimmy Carter described the garrison as "a blight on Jamaica's democracy."