Orville W. Taylor

There are telephone poles, which double as electricity poles and there are poles for yams. Then we have elections, which are referred to as electoral polls and we have opinion polls. At present, there are the Johnson polls for which The Gleaner foots the 'Bill.' Somewhere in the periphery is Anderson, who used to be a 'Don.' But like those similarly named scoundrels who have either lost lives or freedom, he no longer is the leader.

Based on history and reputation, the most solid, almost like a rock, has been the Stone polls. Built on the impeccable reputation of the greatest and most accurate pollster in the hemisphere in this century, it is now headed by a new-generation sociologist, who coincidentally, had experienced the tutelage of the rock-solid fat man. Schooled in the tradition of Carl Stone, our intellectual daddy, the University of the West Indies (UWI)-based team claims scientific independence, with its sponsor being nothing more than an observer.

Space for error

So far, there has been no reason to doubt the polls, as no alarmingly different findings have come from any of the three. In any event, these polls are based on tried and true methodologies. Nonetheless, there is always space for error and human inaccuracies. This is what politicians have focused on when the figures do not support them. In the United States, it took the Gallup polling organisation several decades before it began to enjoy bi-partisan recognition.

Similarly, in 1980, Stone had his credibility challenged by the then ruling People's National Party (PNP) and on one occasion, had to beat a hasty retreat when a crowd of displeased political activists saw him in their midst. Interestingly, when Stone predicted a Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) that year, the pro-government intellectuals at the UWI, headed by the late great Derek Gordon, presented their own set of findings that suggested that a PNP victory was not unlikely. After all, they had just had the largest PNP meeting in history in Sam Sharpe Square.

Both Stone and Gordon are somewhere in academic heaven and I bet that they are having non-alcoholic beer while answering questions from Michael Manley about how truth could have had two different versions.

As the 1980s progressed, the tide began to turn against the JLP, and after a snap selection in 1983, it was all downhill. By the end of 1988, after several encounters with the trade unions and the non-appearance of the predicted social and economic miracle, the Stone polls forecast a PNP victory. Refusing to blink in the face of the findings, then Prime Minister, Edward Seaga, exuded confidence

Twisting the research

Although it has been such a long time since the JLP has held political power, the loss in 1989 is still very vivid in the minds of the thinkers. We have learnt not to discredit pollsters unless they clearly are trying to twist the research to suit their partisan ends.

When honestly done, polls accurately reflect reality. The political cemetery is full of politicians who make mockery of pollsters.

It is for this reason that I am puzzled as to the recent developments in the PNP. Predictably, the scandals, and failure of the Prime Minister to add probity, transparency and thus, closure, to the Trafigura controversy, has not helped her and she has slipped in popularity faster than the value of the Jamaican currency. Not surprisingly, despite earlier polls that indicated that she was believed to be a better manager and performer than Opposition leader, Bruce Golding, the popular feeling now is that he does his job better than she.

Statistical dead heat

Well, after almost two decades in the wilderness, wearing sack cloth and ashes and eating wild honey, he would be encouraged by this. However, the people feel that he performs better as Opposition Leader than Portia does as Prime Minister. This could very well mean that the public feels that he is so good at that job that he should continue to do it.

Nonetheless, the PNP and JLP are in a statistical dead heat, with the PNP losing ground fast. Still, since the prophets have predicted a victory for 'Sista P' in the next election, there seems to be a sort of nonchalance or quiet arrogance.

Prided on its fabled democratic reputation, the party leadership has forced Labourite turncoat Norman Horne unto the unsuspecting delegates in St. Elizabeth. As incumbent, Lenworth Blake is thrice denied, the three million pieces of silver seem to have been quite influential. If three million can buy a safe seat, then maybe 31 can buy a de'mock'cracy. By the way, in the Eastern Caribbean, if a cheating spouse takes the 'thing' and gives it to another, s/he is "horning" his/her partner.

In Westmoreland, the popular choice seems to have been 'Blythed' because, despite all the organic fertiliser that has been spewed, Roger Clarke cannot seem to cultivate any support except from the yellow circle. Though warned of sanctions, the 'Buck' will not stop here. As Clarke tries to 'hog' the seat, he needs to remember that it took lethal yellowing just a year to kill many foundation coconut trees. The industry has not been the same since.

Controversy and democracy

Finally, there is at least one case where there is controversy and democracy at work. The word is now final. Aloun N'Doumbet Assamba has bowed to the wishes of the delegates and will not seek re-election. Unfortunately, the groundswell ballooned against her. Such a pity, because she seemed to be such a nice person. However, that is democracy at work and the people have spoken.

I am not sure of what is happening but in constructing a democracy, solid rocks have to be a part of the base.

Dr. Orville Taylor is senior lecturer in the Department of Sociology, Psychology and Social Work at the University of the West Indies, Mona.