Most Jamaicans, and West Indians in general, are unlikely to be shedding tears at seeing the Republicans turfed out of Congress in America's recent mid-term elections. Emotionally, the region tends to prefer the Democrats.

Moreover, most people in the Caribbean believe that Republican President George W. Bush and his party colleagues in the legislature have hardly made the world a safer place with the war in Iraq and their so-called War on Terror. If anything, they intensified global tensions.

But now that the Republican Congress is out, it would perhaps be wise for the region to mute the celebrations over the fact that the Democrats are in. It is hardly likely that their arrival will mean much or bring benefits to the Caribbean.

In fact, these islands could be worse off for it. For the ideological perspective of the Democrats tends to run counter to what would be in the immediate interest of the Caribbean: enhanced opportunities for, and terms of, trade.

In many respects, the Democrats, far more so than the Republicans, are not receptive to the notions of free trade. Beholden to the U.S. labour movement, they tend to be concerned about the so-called exporting of American jobs to cheaper markets.

The big fear used to be Mexico when the U.S. signed the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). There were the dire warnings of a "sucking sound" as U.S. jobs were slurped south of the border. These days, the big fear for the Democrats and their supporters in the trade unions are China, India and the other cheap destinations of Asia. The Caribbean, at this time, poses no grave threat, so we don't expect the Democrats, given their ideological frame, will do the region any favours.

Indeed, we have recent history as a guide.

It was the administration of the charming Bill Clinton that sided with Chiquita and Latin American banana producers to challenge the European Union's banana regime at the World Trade Organisation, which ended in the weakening of the preferences that African, Caribbean and Pacific countries enjoyed in Europe. The upshot has been a major decline in Jamaica's banana sector, with a drop in jobs and earnings. The economies of Dominica and St. Vincent have been brought to the verge of collapse.

Neither should we expect a Democratic Congress, if it becomes necessary, to aggressively bat for a waiver at the WTO for the Caribbean Basin Initiative, under which most goods from Central America and the Caribbean enter the U.S. duty free. Nor should we believe that a Democratic Congress and presidency, if the latter comes to pass in two years time, to drive anything other than a very hard bargain should the Caribbean Community sue for a bilateral free trade agreement, which the region is now contemplating.

Should we want a signal of what to expect, we need only note the scepticism of the new Congress over recent trade deals with Colombia and Peru that await Congressional approval.

From a political point of view, President Bush and his Republicans may not be attractive, but from a practical standpoint, we need to be wary of the Democrats.

The opinions on this page, except for the above, do not necessarily reflect the views of The Gleaner. To respond to a Gleaner editorial, email us: editor@gleanerjm.com or fax: 922-6223. Responses should be no longer than 400 words. Not all responses will be published.