Orville W. Taylor

I open my newspaper and I smell the bittersweet odour of elections. A harsh whiff of orange causes a 'shower' of tears and the green grass underfoot rises up to counter it. The ripe oranges on the trees are only a few points away from the green bushes. However, as close as they are, they might as well be 'polls' apart.

After a meeting of her senior People's National Party (PNP) officials and campaign strategists on Wednesday, Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller has scheduled another tomorrow among her Members of Parliament, caretakers and parish councillors. This is less than a week ahead of the PNP's annual conference. Pundits have taken this to be a clear indication that elections are on the horizon and could come before the end of this year.

But before they dress in the colours of ripe fruit for the big dance they have a little housecleaning as the vice-presidential elections are also imminent. Seven dwarves (not including Omar) vying for four seats, will play a game of musical chairs until only four are standing. But this is no fairy tale and Snow White is black.

A mild acid test

The elections will be a mild acid test of party unity and election readiness because there were ramblings of power brokers in the party seeking to dissuade some democratically-nominated candidates. The contest is reminiscent of the bitter race for the presidency, which though victorious for Portia, left a few stones unturned.

Doubtless, wounds were suffered, some of which are still unhealed, but the generally unconvincing spokes-man for the party is likely to suggest that these are minor fissures. All might not be well in the camp and I am reminded of the similarity with earlier comments made by Bobby Brown and Whitney Houston. Both celebrities had in the past denied that their marriage was on the 'rock' although there was evidence of 'cracks'. With a declaration that they had "Something in common," they attempted to show a united front. However, in the end, there is a pending divorce and the crack in their solid rock has turned into a split.

In recent polls, Portia is immensely popular and can do nothing wrong for the average Jamaican. She is miles ahead of Opposition Leader Bruce Golding, who has launched a campaign to show him as the nice family guy who is sensitive and caring. This might be true, but the people see Portia as just short of an angel, and is a God-send, if even by her own declaration.

Still, although she outstrips Bruce in all areas in the public's eyes, her party is not as popular. At the upper limit, eight per cent separates the PNP from the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). At the lower end, the lead could be even less than two per cent. This makes the election too close to call if held now. I would however, still bet that the Portia factor would make many unde-serving PNP candidates victorious, thus giving the party another term, leaving the JLP in the green grass of the wilderness for another five years.

After 17 years in opposition, the JLP has come to perform the role well, oftentimes uncovering the Government's shortcomings and unmasking one scandal after another. Although this party has hit the campaign trail some time ago, it has not resulted in increased support. In fact, one overlooked detail in the last bit of polling is that since public opinion was measured late last year, the JLP has also lost ground.

To compete, the JLP still has work to do as it struggles to make Bruce more credible. At present, it is not helped by its General-Secretary Karl Samuda, a man who, like Golding, has done the karma chameleon act and changed colours, twice, to become green again.

Not afraid of controversy, he is now the centre of his own after taking on the 'Scandals' Whitehouse debacle. PNP members are attempting to sanction him via a censure motion for his precipitous revelation to the House that a report completed by Hon. Noel Hylton OJ, had been sent to the Government and it contains damning evidence of impropriety on the part of its agents. Samuda cited from the purported document and has a copy of it on his website.

Validity and accuracy

Yet, Hylton and the Government both deny that the report was ever completed or submitted and accuse him of misleading the House for suggesting that it was forwarded. Nevertheless, no one is questioning the validity or accuracy of the contents. Indeed, if there were no report, where did Samuda get his document from? If it resembles the incomplete one that Hylton has yet to submit, how did it get to leave his hands? Perhaps, like the more famous OJ, he is looking elsewhere for the perpetrator.

Did he give Samu a 'prip' and Samu turned Samfie? Or did Samu construct a document from within the catacombs of his imagination? Anyway, how come he is not being chided for lying about the contents as opposed to the status of report?

In the meantime we watch as the political fruits ripen while the JLP is green with envy and the NDM holds its breath until it is blue.

Dr. Orville Taylor is senior lecturer in the Department of Sociology, Psychology and Social Work at the University of the West Indies, Mona.