Beverley Anderson-Manley

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) reports in its 2006-2009 'Country Strategy With Jamaica' that "Like many other resource-rich countries, especially small ones, Jamaica has underperformed economically over the long term; for decades, robust and sustained economic growth has been elusive. Per capita incomes have stagnated and this has undercut broader developmental progress, contributed to the emigration of skilled Jamaicans, and frustrated expectations ..."

The report continues: "... To a certain extent, the gap between actual income and the expected or desired level of consumption and investment has been financed by growing debt levels and more recently by remittances. Public debt in March 2006 was approximately 132 per cent of GDP - a level that not only represents a threat to macroeconomic stability but also absorbs significant resources. Roughly half of government expenditures are devoted to interest payments and high primary budget surpluses are required to stop the debt from growing and prevent negative debt dynamics."

This August 3, 2006, report, as the Director General of the PIOJ reminds us, was worked out in collaboration with the Government. It adumbrates some of the harsh realities of Jamaican life that voters should take into account when they carry out an assessment of which political party they think can serve them best.- that is, which party can get us out of this trap.

General Election - The Best Polls

It is within this challenging economic environment that I want once again to invite voters to place a laser beam on the marginal seats, using the best political poll possible - a general election.

In October 2002, 16 out of 60 constituencies were won by under 1,000 votes - eight by the PNP and another eight by the JLP.

PNP - Seats won by less than 1,000 votes - Gen Elect. 2002

JLP - Seats won by less than 1,000 votes - Gen Elect. 2002

These are, up until now, the seats to watch. Once we begin with the statistics, we can examine other variables, like the impact of individual candidates.

A Major Variable

Recent polls reveal that in terms of a seat count, the elections could be a statistical dead heat with the undecided standing firm and not shifting to the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). If this position holds true, then what can make the difference between who wins and who loses would be other factors. The leader of the PNP is critical here and it is not surprising that the JLP is targeting the Prime Minister. Portia is located in the tradition of leaders like Bustamante and Michael Manley. At a particular time, they could do no wrong. This is her time.

A PNP Swing

Recent Stone Poll findings suggest a swing of six per cent to the PNP since October, 2002. Therefore, the eight seats won by the JLP by a margin of six per cent or less are at this time statistically at risk.

The many voters currently in the uncommitted category need to make choices. In choosing, let us remember the critical importance of building our productivity capacity so we can have meaningful economic growth. This will enable us to decrease our debt burden and be in a position to pay the police, the nurses, the teachers and the doctors a living wage based on their capacity to produce, produce, produce.

Beverley Anderson-Manley is a political scientist and gender specialist. Email address: BManley@kasnet.com.

Constituency Margin Vote Margin M.P.

1. St. Ann NW 1% 202 V. Parchment

2. St. Elizabeth NW 1% 247 J.C. Hutchinson

3. St. Andrew E 2% 502 St. A. Bartlett

4. Clarendon SE 3% 597 R. Spencer

5. St. Andrew ER 4% 564 J. Hibbert

6. Manchester NE 4% 858 A. Shaw

7. St. Catherine NE 6% 680 A. Dabdoub

8. Hanover E. 6% 736 B. Gray

Constituency	% Margin	Vote Margin M.P.
1. St. Elizabeth SE	1%	82	L. Blake
2. St. Elizabeth SW	1%	117	D. Buchanan
3. St. Mary SE	1%	385	H. Douglas
4. Portland W	2%	281	E. Ennis
5. Clarendon NW	2%	684	R. Azan
6. Clarendon N	4%	627	H. Dalley
7. St. Mary W	4%	849	N. McGill
8. St. Andrew SE	6%	859	M. Henry-Wilson