John Rapley

The two-month election season began this week in the U.S., and already the ruling Republicans are visibly nervous. They have enjoyed six years of control over the federal layer of government. The White House, Senate and House of Representatives are all in their hands, and they have used that leverage to tilt the Supreme Court further towards conservatism.

Their key helpmate in this process has been the Democratic Party. Its bungling and bickering has enabled a solid Republican base to keep delivering its candidates narrow victories. But while the Democrats still have unresolved differences, the solid Republican base is showing ever more cracks. Come November, it may not hold.

Underlying causes

There are some deep underlying causes for the turn against the Republicans. The economic mood is souring. Americans are more indebted than ever at a time when interest rates and prices are rising. Employment growth has slowed, and real wages continue to stagnate.

That is hardly novel. Things have been moving in that direction for more than two decades. But this time, it is happening under an administration which seems - with its tax cuts for the rich - to show little sensitivity to the plight of ordinary Americans.

So too, mid-term elections tend to favour the opposition. The 2002 reinforcement of Republican control was unusual, and at the time was credited to effective campaigning for Republican candidates by President George W. Bush.

This time, however, Republicans are running from Mr. Bush like schoolchildren from the weird kid. And that points to what is perhaps the greatest source of Republican anxiety: a deeply unpopular administration.

Mid-term elections

Mid-term elections often get treated by voters as referenda on the performance of the system as a whole. That is what happened in 1994, when voters punished a then-unpopular Bill Clinton by producing the so-called Republican revolution.

There are signs that a reversal of that revolution may now begin. The Democrats stand an excellent chance of retaking control of the House. The Republican margin in the Senate will also probably be reduced. Those possibilities are causing the White House grave concerns.

First, it will mean that the White House will lose what little control it still has over the legislative agenda. For as long as the Bush adminis-tration was popular, it could spend its capital persuading Republican legislators to toe its line.

Second, and perhaps most impor-tant, scrutiny over the White House's actions is sure to increase if either house of Congress falls into Democratic hands. The Bush ad-ministration's chutzpah in dismis-sing its critics will count for little if Democrats gain the power to begin investigating the White House.

This is healthy for democracy. Studies have shown that when Washington is divided between a president of one party and a Congress of another, the legislature tends to be most productive. However, it will not be healthy for the cast of cocksure characters George W. Bush has assembled around himself. When the odd Republican candidate can be heard already calling for the resignation of Defence Secretary Donald Rums-feld, signs of desperation in the Republican camp are starting to show.

John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.