- IAN ALLEN/STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER
A worker affixes $60 on to a sign board along the Portmore Toll road yesterday morning.
Gareth Manning, Gleaner Writer
IS A $30 toll for motor cars enough to pay back French construction firm Bouygues Travaux Publics the $US100 million or JA$6.5 billion it spent on building the Portmore leg of Highway 2000?
Analysts believe the $30 toll, proposed by Portmore residents, can provide the investor with a satisfactory return on its investment, if 90 per cent of the estimated 39,000 vehicles per day pass through the toll plaza.
But the toll road operator estimates that 70 per cent or 28,000 of that total will use the route, hence the setting of the charges at $60 for Class One vehicles (motor cars), $100 for Class Two (sports utility vehicles) and $200 for Class Three (trucks and buses).
Trevor Jackson, managing director of TransJamaican Highway, a subsidiary of Bouygues, says the current charges will allow the developer to repay loans and meet other expenditure for maintaining infrastructure.
LOAN REPAYMENT
"It's what's needed to repay the loan. When you set these projects, you have to try and find a balance between the construction of the project and what that costs and what is believed to be an affordable toll," he argues. "So in order to make the project viable, you have to pull an estimate of the traffic and multiply it by an affordable toll."
But head of the Portmore Citizens' Advisory Council (PCAC), Yvonne McCormack, says a toll of $30 is more affordable and will guarantee compliance in the high 90s.
"Almost everybody will comply if the toll is $30. Sixty dollars is just too high," she tells The Sunday Gleaner.
That analysis may have merit if one takes into consideration the higher than expected usage of the Spanish Town to Kingston leg of Highway 2000 because of low toll rates. Jackson notes that the traffic count on that route was 18 per cent above projection because of the present toll of $50 for cars.
CONSENSUS
The Portmore group's expectations, however, are not based on a scientific survey. McCormack says the calculation was made based on consensus received at several public meetings. The benefits accruing to developers were not the primary consideration, but rather what was perceived to be an affordable cost to the citizens, she explains.
If the Portmore residents' analysis is correct, developers might benefit from a $30 toll.
Based on the current traffic projection, eight per cent of vehicles using the toll road are expected to be Class Three automobiles (buses, trucks), 17 per cent Class Two (SUV's) and the remaining 75 per cent, motor cars.
Given that ratio, if 90 per cent of the estimated 39,000 vehicles used the toll road paying rates of $170, $70 and $30 per passage respectively, then developers should stand to earn $3.37 million daily, roughly equivalent to the revenue toll operators project to collect at the current $60 rate for first-class vehicles.
But financial analyst John Jackson says an expectation of 90 per cent usage of the Portmore toll road is too high. He suggests that possible bottlenecks in certain parts of the Corporate Area where motorists leave the toll road might discourage high usage of the Portmore toll road. He also surmises that usage might be impacted by where people live in Portmore and their destination in Kingston.
"Those persons living closer to Mandela may find it better and even cheaper to go via this road (Mandela Highway) especially if the final destination is New Kingston or above," notes Jackson.
FAITH IN THE PROJECTIONS
He is, however, putting more faith in the projections of the highway developers than the expectations of Portmore residents.
"The Highway 2000 people seemed to have got it right regarding the other two legs in terms of usage, so I would rather believe their figures rather than the citizens in terms of possible usage," reasons Jackson. But he cautions: "Of course their numbers may not have taken a boycott into consideration and the resentment that has developed over the issue. Long term it will probably sort itself out even if this does not happen in the short run," says Jackson.
He, however, feels a toll at this time is not fair to people because of the present economic climate.
"While $30 may seem far lower than $60, we are in an economy that is very tight with many persons not having the resources to meet the added expenditure. So any added cost cannot be entertained," the financial analysts notes.
Economist Errol Gregory agrees that an expectation of 90 per cent use of the the Portmore toll road is high. Like Jackson, he argues that based on the economic climate, a toll at any rate might affect usage.
"If what the Portmore residents say is true, the current rate would be too high," says Gregory. However, he is sceptical about how the frequent-user discounts will affect the developer's revenue at such a low rate. At the present rates there is a $10 discount once a motorist makes 10 trips in a week using prepaid tags. That discount moves down to $20 for more than 10 trips in a week.
