Beverley Anderson -Manley
THE DAY of decision is at hand. Within a few weeks, we will know the outcome of the People's National Party (PNP) presidential election on a delegates voters' list and procedures agreed on by the four contenders.
When the dust has settled and the votes have been counted, there will be no time for the new leader to even breathe a sigh of relief. The political landscape will continue to demand full national attention and will occupy a large space in the head of the new leader.
Looming large in the "head that wears the crown" will be the question of when the next general election, should be called. Elections are due by October 2007, not taking into the account the three-month 'grace period' allowed by the Constitution. The PNP has never taken advantage of this 'extra time' - always calling general elections earlier than due.
PARTY UNITY
The first political task of the leader will be to unite and heal the divisions in the party generated by the presidential contest. At any time of transition, there will always be members who need time to settle down.
Whatever the aftermath of the PNP presidential elections one fact remains, party unity is critical to winning the fifth term. The big question that will face the new leader is: How much time will be needed to bring the party together and put it in an election mode? One deciding factor will be the voters' list.
The Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ says it needs more time to ensure that the 300,000 persons not verified are placed on the list and the Opposition says that elections are a no-go without those 300,000 persons. That makes it unlikely for an election to be held before June. All citizens should ensure their right to vote by cooperating now with the EOJ.
CANDIDATE SELECTION
Several Members of Parliament have declared hat they are not running again and some MPs will be challenged internally. Candidate selection is therefore on the agenda and this is a timely process.
Believe it or not, the World Cup cricket scheduled for March 2007 also has a role to play in the calling of elections. I am reliably informed that in order to prevent disruptions, the Prime Ministers of the region have given assurances that no elections will be held four to six months prior to the World Cup.
These considerations narrow down the time for the calling of general elections to before September of this year or after March of next year. But how much time is necessary, given the magnitude of the task ahead?
Let's consider some more facts about readiness. In the 2002 general elections, the PNP won 19 out of 34 constituencies it had secured in the previous elections, by less than 700; four by less than 500; two by less than 200 and two by less than 100. This is an indication that there is hard work ahead. Added to the problem of declining margins, there appears to be a high level of alienation bordering on hostility towards some MPs. This is understandable when one considers that the party has been in office for four consecutive terms. This is yet another indication that there is hard work ahead.
OPPOSITION CALL
Then there are the external pressures. The Opposition has already started to put its election machinery in place according to statements from its Leader Bruce Golding and the announcement last week that Area Council 4 is getting ready for either parish council or general elections. Opposition calls for 'elections now' will intensify once the new PNP leader is in office.
After all is said and done, the first hurdle to be overcome is the PNP presidential election and it is the party delegates who have the power of decision. The question of the moment is: What are the PNP delegates looking for in a leader? We will soon find out. The other question - what are Jamaicans looking for in a leader - will be answered before September of this year or after March 2007.
Beverley Anderson Manley is a Broadcaster, Gender Expert, Transformational Trainer and Political Scientist. Email: bmanley@kasnet.com.
