Robert Buddan
Robert Buddan
BRUCE GOLDING has now launched his campaign for leadership of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).
His competitor is Pearnel Charles. Opposition Leader Edward Seaga had said on different occasions that neither Mr. Golding nor Mr. Charles would make good leaders because Mr. Golding is too indecisive and doesn't have the stomach for politics, and Mr. Charles was too old and the JLP needed new leadership no older than 60.
After saying that he would not seek re-election as party leader, Mr. Seaga predicted that the JLP would suffer turmoil having passed the point of repair to its internal divisions, implying here that no matter who won the leadership, the party would not be stable.
Mr. Seaga has since moderated his tone saying he wishes the candidates the best, and that his latest criticisms of Mr. Golding were only designed to wake him up.
He also corrected Mr. Charles' statement that he backed Charles' campaign, saying he is really neutral. Where Mr. Seaga stands is very important.
Speculation abounds as to his possible role as kingmaker and his own future in the JLP. He could retain effective power directly or indirectly by the way he manoeuvres.
This has great implications for Mr. Golding's campaign and his own future power.
POWER BALANCING
Power is a balancing act. It is, therefore, important to know where, for instance, the very important labour wing of the JLP stands.
The Bustamante Industrial Trade Union (BITU) leadership seems to stand with Mr. Golding. When Mr. Charles contested for deputy leadership of the JLP in 2001, he had the public backing of the BITU and its president, the late Hugh Shearer.
Mr. Seaga stood behind Audley Shaw. But in this succession campaign, leading BITU officials are not supporting Charles, the union man.
Dwight Nelson, the BITU vice-president and president of the Joint Confederation of Trade Unions (JCTU), and Ruddy Spencer, president-designate of the BITU, along with former BITU/JLP Member of Parliament (MP) Cliff Stone, are all backing Golding against a BITU vice-president, Pearnel Charles.
The stance of the JLP parliamentarians is also critical.
Newspaper reports say that Mr. Golding had already received the official endorsement of 12 JLP MPs but that at least 15 of them attended the launch of his campaign.
This gives him a safe majority of the JLP's 26 MPs. He could possibly win over another three or four.
Mr. Golding might not be
eligible to become Leader of the Opposition just yet but he would be able to get the support of enough parliamentarians to back his choice of who that person should be.
If Mr. Seaga is acting as kingmaker in one camp of the JLP, it seems as though the balance of power is against him.
Polls have since shown Golding to be the strong preference over Charles among the public.
Mr. Golding has the public, the BITU leadership, the parliamentary wing, some party affiliates, and party officers among whom are two deputy leaders, general secretary and chairman. Mr. Seaga has a handful of parliamentary loyalists.
UPSETTING THE BALANCE
If Mr. Seaga and the traditionalists are outnumbered they are not necessarily outmanoeuvred. Mr. Seaga's stated views on who should lead the party are clear.
As recently as 2000, Mr. Seaga said, "I am not leaving the Jamaica Labour Party in a position where it is going to be overtaken by any gang whose intentions are to hijack it and seize leadership for themselves when they do not have the capability of leadership."
At that time, Mr. Seaga was having one of his falling outs with Karl Samuda, current general secretary and Golding ally.
Mr. Seaga said that if he left the party, people like Karl Samuda would flaunt disrespect for the systems he was trying to introduce.
True to his usual
conspiratorial style of thinking, Mr. Seaga said, "It would be the Samudas and the others of his like-minded groups who would refuse to accept the will of the party as decided by the structures that are set up democratically and the party would be in turmoil."
What Mr. Seaga was really saying was that he was the will of the party, his will was the democratic will of the party, and any opposition to this will would destabilise and bring the party into turmoil.
A CONSTANT THEME
It has been a constant theme of Mr. Seaga that the JLP will be in turmoil without him.
He predicted this again when he explained his intention not to seek re-election as party leader.
The danger here is that he might wish to make this a self-fulfilling prophecy. In fact, this could be the basis for a possible ploy to reinsert himself at the
If, for instance, in-fighting in the party was to be manufactured, the party's election is made controversial and no legitimate leader emerges, Mr. Seaga could offer himself as the only one capable of bringing order and discipline to the party, and as the last
legitimately elected leader, should continue to be leader in the best interest of the party.
Mr. Seaga's attack on Mr. Golding, blaming him for indiscipline in the party, and predicting that the party will be beyond repair, sounded ominously like a letter that could have been setting the stage for precisely a ploy such as this.
UNDERMINE AND SABOTAGE
It has also been a constant theme of Mr. Seaga to attack others who disagreed with his style of leadership as people conspiring against him, forming a party within a party, constituting themselves as a gang, and aiming to destabilise the party.
Mr. Samuda, Mr. Charles and Mr. Golding have all been so charged.
Mr. Seaga once said, "The problem that we have is that there are those who do not respect (the party's structures) and we are not intending to keep that element within our ranks to continue to create destabilisation. It is my objective to quell all of that and get rid of all of that before I step away."
As far back as 1990, Mr. Seaga attacked the Gang of Five as a group trying to 'undermine' and 'sabotage' his leadership and said that he would not tolerate a clique or faction operating as a party within a party.
It might be that Mr. Seaga still holds the view that Mr. Golding, Mr. Samuda and their supporters are part of a conspiracy to seize the party and that he has a responsibility to save the party from such usurpers.
In 1995, Mr. Seaga said that it was not out of a love for power why he stayed on as party leader but out of a sense of responsibility. He had a responsibility to protect the party from cliques and factions.
The Golding campaign should make sure that the power of party leader and of Leader of the Opposition is not separated into hands that will divide the party. The campaign must focus on uniting those powers.
UNITING THE POWER
Mr. Seaga's proprietary attitude towards the JLP leaves one to wonder if he really intends to step away from power over the party.
It could be that Mr. Seaga and Mr. Charles have brokered an understanding that Mr. Seaga will stay on as Leader of the Opposition should Charles win the party leadership.
Mr. Seaga would then make his position as Leader of the Opposition the real seat of power over the JLP. After all, he has not said he will resign as Leader of the Opposition and if he does not, it is hardly likely that he will take orders from Pearnel Charles, Bruce Golding or anyone who heads the JLP.
It is very surprising, therefore, that Mr. Golding has said he would support Horace Chang as Leader of the Opposition, if Mr. Seaga chooses not to continue in that position.
The Golding campaign must make sure that the election results are beyond question and that the choice of Leader of the Opposition is not left up to Mr. Seaga, since that would defy the logic of democracy anyway.
That decision should be made by the party's parliamentarians and the person they select should represent the style and vision that Mr. Golding stands for.
In the meantime, should Mr. Seaga be seen to be part of any process to undermine the integrity of the succession process, the 15 JLP parliamentarians have the power under Jamaica's constitution to elect a new Leader of the Opposition any time they have lost confidence in the present one. The balance of power gives them that authority.
Robert Buddan lectures
in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
E-mail:
Robert.Buddan@uwimona.edu.jm
