IF THERE is going to be a change of Government after the September/October 2002 General Election, the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) must retain all, or the overwhelming majority of its present twelve seats in Parliament. In addition, there are a critical 20 constituencies now held by the governing People's National Party (PNP) which can be won and must be won by the Jamaica Labour Party, if there is to be a change.
This conclusion is partially based on the results of the recent Observer/Stone public opinion poll which saw the PNP making significant improvements in the party standings. The polls indicate that the two traditionals (JLP and PNP) are locked in a statistical dead heat with less than half a percentage point separating them (27.6 per cent to 27.2 per cent).
A comparison of the voting pattern over the last three General Elections since 1989 with the findings of four selected July Stone Polls since 1999 provides a useful basis for this analysis.
TABLE I, which includes figures for the uncommitted, shows:
The JLP is back to its 28 per cent support in the 1989 General Elections.
The PNP is back to its support of 27 per cent in the 1997 General Elections
Since the 1997 General Elections the JLP has gained nine points while the PNP has remained constant.
Third Party support is back to the 2 per cent it had in the 1997 General Elections.
TABLE II which excludes the uncommitted indicate:
The PNP won the 1997 General Elections by a margin of 17 points (56 per cent - 39 per cent)
The present poll standings show a statistical dead heat (JLP 49 - PNP 47)
The JLP enjoys a 10 per cent increase in its support over its 1997 General Elections standing - moving from 39 per cent to 49 per cent
The PNP has lost nine per cent of its support when compared to the same 1997 General Elections, i.e. a slippage from 56 per cent to 47 per cent
Third Party support remains relatively constant, i.e. 4 per cent in July 2002 compared to the 5 per cent gained by the National Democratic Movement (NDM) in 1997.
Assuming this 10 per cent increase in JLP support and a 9 per cent decrease in PNP's support, one can draw some statistical conclusions based on the 1997 General Election results and the recent Stone poll findings.
TABLE III shows 14 constituencies which the PNP won over the JLP in 1997 by margins ranging from 34 per cent to 96 per cent. It is improbable that the PNP could lose any of those seats based on the present poll findings.
TABLE IV shows another 14 constituencies with victory margins for the PNP ranging from 15 per cent to 26 per cent. Western Westmoreland with a 34 per cent margin over the JLP is included since it is assumed that at least 50 per cent of the NDM/Russell Hammond voters would have gone to the JLP in a straight two party fight. This would put McNeil's victory margin more like 25 per cent. These additional 14 seats based on a 9 per cent decrease in PNP support made them relatively safe for the PNP at this time.
TABLE V lists the seven constituencies presently held by the JLP which have very comfortable margins ranging from 9 per cent to 69 per cent. Most of these had strong NDM support - at least 50 per cent of which should go to the JLP.
TABLE VI lists the other five constituencies presently held by the Opposition. These have single digit margins of victory for the JLP over the PNP. With the present swing and the assumption that they would receive at least 50 per cent of the 1997 NDM votes, these constituencies should remain firmly in the JLP camp. Two of these constituencies, West Central St. Andrew (Holness) and North East St. Catherine (Dabdoub) had their original decisions reversed. North East St. Ann (Robinson) benefited from the swing and changed hands in the March 2000 bye-election.
Tables III; IV; V and VI account for 40 constituencies - 28 favouring the PNP and 12 inclined to the JLP.
TABLE VII shows the remaining twenty critical constituencies. All of these constituencies were won by the PNP in 1997. However, they had margins of victory ranging from 0.3 per cent to 15 per cent. Thirteen of these have margins under 8 per cent and the other seven from 10 per cent to 15 per cent. Most of them however had significant support for the NDM in 1997 relative to the margins of victory of the PNP over the JLP.
These twenty constituencies are those to watch. The seven with margins of 10 per cent to 15 per cent will constitute the core battleground seats. The results of the voting on Election Day in these constituencies will determine the winner of the September/October 2002 General Elections.
One love, One heart.
Former PNP General Secretary and Government Minister in the PNP administration of the 1970's, Dr. Duncan, a dental surgeon, recently established the D.K. Duncan Political Institute. Email: dktruth@hotmail.com
TABLES I AND II
GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS AND PARTY STANDINGS
IN SELECTED STONE POLLS (INCLUDING THE UNCOMMITTED)
GENERAL ELECTIONS STONE POLLS
FEB.
MARCH
DEC.
JULY
JULY
JULY
JULY
1989
1993
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
JLP
28%
21%
19%
21%
20%
28%
28%
PNP
37%
33%
27%
21%
24%
20%
27%
TP
N/A
N/A
2%
14%
7%
2%
2%
UC
35%
46%
52%
44%
49%
50%
43%
GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS AND PARTY STANDINGS IN
SELECTED STONE POLLS (EXCLUDING THE UNCOMMITTED)
GENERAL ELECTIONS
STONE POLLS
FEB.
MARCH
DEC.
JULY
JULY
JULY
JULY
1989
1993
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
JLP
43%
39%
39%
38%
39%
56%
49%
PNP
56%
59%
56%
38%
47%
40%
47%
TP/
OTHERS
1%
2%
5%
24%
14%
4%
4%
TABLES III AND IV
Very safe seats for the PNP
CONSTITUENCY
1997 PNP
NDM %
PNP
JLP
MARGIN OF
OF VOTE
CANDIDATE
CANDIDATE
VICTORY(%)
CAST
KINGSTON, EAST
70
1
PHILLIP PAULWELL
PETER SANGSTER
ST. ANDREW, WEST
47
2
O.T. WILLIAMS
JOYCE ANN YOUNG
ST. ANDREW, E. C.
49
4
PETER PHILLIPS
CLAUDE RIDDELL
ST. ANDREW, S.W.
96
----
P.SIMPSON MILLER
G.MCINTOSH REID
ST. ANDREW, S.
83
0.4
OMAR DAVIES
DENNIS MESSIAS
ST. CATHERINE, S.C.
50
1
S. HAY-WEBSTER
T.SEYMOUR GARVEY
ST. ANN, S.E.
49
2
ALOUN ASSAMBA
P. FAKHOURIE JR.
ST. JAMES, S.
33
4
DERRICK KELLIER
CARL RHODEN
WESTMORELAND, E.
44
1
P.J. PATTERSON
DON FOOTE
ST. ELIZABETH, N.E.
39
2
ROGER CLARKE
BASIL PERRIEL
MANCHESTER, N.W.
37
4
DEAN PEART
JAMES DORAN
ST. CATHERINE, N.W.
34
3
ROBERT PICKERSGILL
To Be Announced
ST. CATHERINE, S.E.
32
8
PAUL ROBERTSON
ARTHUR WILLIAMS
ST. CATHERINE, E.C.
38
6
K.D. KNIGHT
RAYMOTH NOTICE
Safe seats for the PNP
CONSTITUENCY
1997 PNP
NDM %
PNP
JLP
MARGIN OF
OF VOTE
CANDIDATE
CANDIDATE
VICTORY(%)
CAST
KINGSTON CENTRAL
21
0.6
TO BE ANNOUNCED
TO BEANNOUNCED
ST. ANDREW, S.E.
25
7
M. HENRY WILSON
PHILLIP HENRIQUES PORTLAND, EAST
26
2
DONALD RHODD
DENNIS MINOTT
PORTLAND, WEST
20
-----
ERROL ENNIS
KENNETH ROWE
ST. MARY, CENTRAL
25
1
MORAIS GUY
S.HAUGHTON JAMES
TRELAWNY, NORTH
15
2
PATRICK HARRIS
C. JOHNSON
HANOVER, WEST
17
7
BEN CLARE
TRAVIS SPENCE
WESTMORELAND, W.
34
21
WYCKHAM MCNEIL
PATRICK ATKINSON
WESTMORELAND, C
25
4
KARL BLYTHE
TREVOR BROOKS
MANCHESTER, S.
23
2
MICHAEL PEART
NOEL SIMPSON
MANCHESTER, C.
19
6
JOHN JUNOR
NORMAN HORNE
CLARENDON, S.W.
25
3
CHARLES LEARMOND
JOEL WILLIAMS
CLARENDON, N.
19
2
HORACE DALLEY
L. BRODERICK
ST. CATHERINE, S.
19
5
FITZ JACKSON
E. WILLIAMSON
TABLES V AND VI
Very safe seats for the JLP
CONSTITUENCY
1997 JLP
NDM %
JLP
PNP
MARGIN OF
OF VOTE
CANDIDATE
CANDIDATE
VICTORY(%)
CAST
KINGSTON, W.
69
O.2
EDWARD SEAGA
BUNNY WITTER
CLARENDON, C.
22
4
MICHAEL HENRY
LEOPOLD HYLTON
ST. CATHERINE, C.
30
30
BABSEY GRANGE
HOMER WHITE
ST. ANDREW, N.W.
26
10
DERRICK SMITH
NEMLA WILSON
ST. ANDREW, N.E.
15
15
DELROY CHUCK
LEONARD GREEN
ST. ANDREW, N.C.
10
15
KARL SAMUDA
BARBARA CLARKE
MANCHESTER, N.E.
9
13
AUDLEY SHAW
DOROTHY MILLER
Safe seats for the JLP
CONSTITUENCY
1997 JLP
NDM %
JLP
PNP
MARGIN OF
OF VOTE
CANDIDATE
CANDIDATE
VICTORY(%)
CAST
ST. ANDREW, W.C.
1
0.3
ANDREW HOLNESS
PATRICK ROBERTS
ST. ANN, N.E.
12
3
SHAHINE ROBINSON
CAROL JACKSON
ST. ELIZABETH, N.W.
4
3
J.C. HUTCHINSON
STANLEY REWOOD
CLARENDON, N.W.
2
13
CLIFTON STONE
RICHARD AZAN
ST. CATHERINE, N.E.
0.4
1
ABE DABDOUB
PHYLLIS MITCHELL
TABLE VII
Marginal seats
Seats that tha JLP can and must win if there
is to ba a change in government
