By V. Lloyd Simpson,
Contributor
YESTERDAY I was amused to hear the suggestion of a jinx which is associated with the Jamaica Oaks.
And even more so that it was from an associate whom one would have expected to be impervious to superstition in horseracing. He was of course referring to the several instances of the defeat of ante-post favourites of the event over the years, although, like myself, he was thoroughly convinced that Guineas heroine Awesome Power will be lonely at the post on Saturday.
Needing to allay his fears and seeming reservation for a possible upset, I pointed to two things.
Firstly, I said, even if churlish Lady Fortune resorts to her most effective potion on Saturday and Awesome Power loses, the fact is that her chances of annexing the triple crown in rivalry with Millimetre, would still be intact: especially that she is now to be ridden by course and distance expert, Charles Hussey.
Secondly, I said upsets in the Oaks over the years are easily explained. The filly who wins the 1000 Guineas will have to cope with the stress of an additional 400 metres. This being so, she will have to be an out-and-out stayer to win, and not a middle-distance contender whose best performance is limited after 1600 metres.
Thirdly, I said, horses capitulate in gruelling races when they cannot cope at one and the same time with stamina requirement and pace. And if their riders cannot completely handle the rating function of the mix (stamina, pace and rating) disaster intervenes.
Awesome Power is unlikely to be short, during the race, on any of the three components, Hussey having been engaged for the job, and her credentials having proven that she will not be deficient in coping with stamina requirement and the factor of pace simultaneously.
So, what are the instances that have given rise to this alleged jinx?
I'll tell you by starting with the most disconcerting instance in recent years.
In 1994 the Kenneth Mattis-trained Melissa's Song had developed into a household name in racing circles. She had romped the 1000 Guineas with so much conviction that coming down in the Oaks was considered unthinkable. But 10-1 shot Habitual, trained by Jose Pinchin had other ideas, as well as her jockey Charles Hussey. The Pinchin-Hussey partnership won handily. The fact was that Habitual was simply the superior stayer who was less daunted by the additional 400 metres. The annointed ante-post-favourite Melissa's Song finished in second spot with a rousing response from the stands.
The foregoing is an example of the suggested jinx which has been cited for the information of younger racing fans among us. Going back to 1986 the phenomenal Manuscript's upset in the race has also fed the myth.
Trained by the popular Jackson 'Dr. Fu Manchu' Hong, and going off at odds of (24-1), the Legendary - Graffiti filly owned by William Yee, demolished her rivals completely with Steve Cross aboard.
Being a maiden at the start it was a major upset. Sing Along at (30-1) trained also by Hong was second. The Guineas winner Lizner finished fourth behind Full Moon (30-1), a classic case of the jinx factor.
Lizner (3-1) shortened 200 metres out due to her failure to stay the additional real estate of the Oaks. But disqualifications in the event, have also contributed to the myth. In 1969 Big Dawn who finished first was disqualified and Symphony owned by Dr. Noel March, trained by Ren Gonzales and ridden by the popular Panamanian jockey (on a stint in Jamaica) Albino Ubidia, awarded the race after finishing second.
Then again in 1981, a similar disaster recurred. She's A Clown, trained by Paul Newman of blessed memory, won the event at frightening odds. She was disqualified and Forceful Native, owned by the then prominent syndicate S. G. Stables, and ridden by big-occasion jockey Fitzroy Gillespie, got the race after previously finishing in second spot. The Kenneth Mattis-trained Ricochet, ridden by Winston Griffiths, had made hacks of the opposition in the 1000 Guineas, in the impressive time then of 1.39.0. She was nowhere around in the Oaks.
So there it is: instances of the litany of unexpected upsets and disqualifications. But superstition amounts only to a bizarre intrusion on the forecasting function.
No filly of worth, since commencement of the calendar, is able to cross swords with Awesome Power with any serious expectation of prevailing.
She will simply have to be left to Millimetre to do the job. Red Bootlaces, Princess Alexandra and the lot should only be categorised together as mere hopefuls.
